Rückfallprognosen bei Sexualstraftätern — Vergleich der prädiktiven Validität von Prognoseinstrumenten

Stadtland, Cornelis; Hollweg, Matthias; Kleindienst, Nikolaus; Dietl, J.; Reich, Uta; Nedopil, Norbert

doi:10.1007/s00115-005-1945-2

Cited by 22 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Based on Hare (33), scores on the PCL-R can be categorized into three levels, with values between 0 and 16 indicating a low score, values between 17 and 24 indicating a medium score, and values above 24 indicating a high score on the construct. The reliability, concurrent and predictive validity of the PCL-R have been supported by a substantial body of literature (33–37). In case of omitted items, prorated scores were used.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Determinants of Dropout From Correctional Offender Treatment

et al. 2019

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Research indicates that approximately one third of offenders admitted to social-therapeutic correctional facilities in Germany fail to complete treatment and that treatment dropout is linked to higher recidivism in both sexual and violent offenders. The purpose of this study was to examine determinants of treatment dropout in a social-therapeutic correctional facility in Germany. The sample consisted of 205 incarcerated adult male offenders (49.8% sexual, 38.1% non-sexual violent) admitted to correctional treatment. Completers and dropouts were compared on variables pertaining to demographics, offense type, substance abuse, psychopathy, risk, and protective factors. Univariate analyses showed that treatment dropouts demonstrated significantly higher scores on measures of risk and psychopathy and lower scores on protective factors. Logistic regression analyses identified unemployment, non-sexual violent index offense, higher risk scores (HCR-20), and Facet 1 (interpersonal deficits) of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) as significant predictors of treatment dropout. Surprisingly, substance abuse disorder was a negative predictor of dropout. With the exception of substance abuse, the results support the notion that treatment dropouts represent a group of high-risk offenders with particular treatment needs. Practical implications and suggestions for further research are discussed.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Determinants of Dropout From Correctional Offender Treatment

et al. 2019

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“…It should be noted, however, that the studies in question (Eher et al, 2012; Rettenberger et al, 2010) partially overlap with the current sample. Further support for the predictive validity of the Static-99 in German-speaking countries comes from a study by Stadtland et al (2006). Interrater agreement was excellent (ICC = .93, p < .001) tested in a random sample of 20 cases in Rettenberger et al (2010).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Sadism and Violent Reoffending in Sexual Offenders

Eher

Schilling²,

Hansmann³

et al. 2015

Sex Abuse

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A diagnosis of sadism in sexual offenders is commonly regarded as indicative of high risk for violent reoffending. The purpose of the current two studies was to evaluate whether sadism is indeed associated with higher rates of violent (including sexual) reoffending. In Study 1 (meta-analysis), the rate of violent and sexual recidivism was assessed across seven samples of male sex offenders (total N = 2,169) as a function of diagnoses of sexual sadism. In Study 2 (N = 768) the outcome (violent recidivism yes/no) was regressed on sadism, along with behavioral indicators of sexually sadistic offending, and scores from violence risk assessment instruments. In Study 1 (meta-analysis), the overall risk of sadists compared with nonsadists with respect to violent (including sexual contact) reoffending was slightly elevated (by a factor of 1.18), yet not significantly increased. Similarly, the risk of sexual reoffending among sadists was slightly, but not significantly, higher than among nonsadists (factor 1.38). According to Study 2, only a measure of sadistic behavior, not the clinical diagnosis, was associated with violent reoffending. This association, however, was not present once age and customary risk assessment instruments for violence risk were included in the regression. A clinical diagnosis of sexual sadism and behavioral measures of sadism are related to the risk of violent reoffending in sexual offenders. These associations, however, are weak and do not hold once variables relevant for the prediction of violence are controlled for. At the individual level, the risk for future violence in sadists can therefore be adequately described by customary risk assessment instruments.

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“…By 2009, the Static-99 had already been cross-validated in 63 samples (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2009). Evidence of its predictive validity has also been observed in German-speaking countries, including Austria, Germany, and Switzerland (Endrass, Urbaniok, Held, Vetter, & Rossegger, 2009; Rettenberger, Matthes, Boer, & Eher, 2010; Stadtland et al, 2006).…”

mentioning

confidence: 88%

Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland

et al. 2019

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This study evaluated the validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in assessing sexual recidivism in Switzerland, based on a sample of 142 male sex offenders. Both tools showed predictive validity, but the Static-99R had better discrimination (OR = 1.82, AUC = .81) and calibration (Brier = .078, P/E = 0.96) than the Static-99. A cut score of four on the Static-99R maximized sensitivity (92.9%) and specificity (60.2%). However, although most offenders (98.7%) with a score < 4 did not commit sexual offenses in the 5-year follow-up period, only one in five (20.3%) offenders with a score ≥ 4 actually recidivated. Furthermore, the predicted number of recidivists in the well above average risk category (Static-99R ≥ 6) was 24% higher than expected in routine samples. The results suggest that the Static-99R may be a useful screening tool to identify low-risk individuals but offenders with scores ≥ 4 should be subjected to a more thorough assessment.

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Rückfallprognosen bei Sexualstraftätern — Vergleich der prädiktiven Validität von Prognoseinstrumenten

Cited by 22 publications

References 41 publications

Determinants of Dropout From Correctional Offender Treatment

Determinants of Dropout From Correctional Offender Treatment

Sadism and Violent Reoffending in Sexual Offenders

Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland

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