Risk Assessment of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity: A Case Study in North China

Han, Yan; Zhang, Shifeng; Lv, Aifeng; Zeng, Hong‐Yan

doi:10.1111/1752-1688.12994

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Emphasizing the balance of economic, social and environmental support forces is more in line with the national concept of ecological civilization construction. The existing research results on water resources carrying capacity [64][65][66][67][68][69] also clearly demonstrate that the carrying capacity of water resources system is affected by the complex system of "water resources -social -economicecological environment".…”

Section: Model Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment and early warning of water resources carrying capacity in Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone

Fu,

Ding,

Wang

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Assessment of water resource carrying capacity is a useful tool for measuring the degree of realization of resource and environmental planning. Scientific monitoring and evaluation of water resource carrying capacity is a basic requirement for building ecological civilization and implementing the development concept of "green water and green mountains are golden mountains and silver mountains". Taking 26 county units in the Dongting Lake Ecological and Economic Zone in Hunan Province as the evaluation object, 22 water resource carrying capacity evaluation indicators were selected, and the comprehensive weight method of subjective and objective combination of hierarchical entropy weight evaluation method and weighted summation comprehensive scoring method were used to calculate the comprehensive water resource carrying capacity values of 26 "county units" in the Dongting Lake Ecological and Economic Zone during the 25-year research period of 1997–2021. The results were analyzed using gray correlation method and Ridge regression modeling. After processing the input data of each layer based on the evaluation index system, BP neural network regression training was conducted to obtain a prediction model for the future trend of water resource carrying capacity for prediction and analysis. The results show that: (1) In terms of time trend, the water resource carrying capacity of the study area was generally stable, between overload and critical. The change trend of water resource carrying capacity changed greatly among districts and counties; (2) In terms of spatial distribution, there were differences in the water resource carrying capacity of the Dongting Lake ecological and economic zone: the water resource carrying capacity around the western districts and counties and the central South Dongting Lake was higher than the northern Yueyang urban area; (3) Among the four criteria layers, the weight of water resources supporting capacity was the highest, with the smallest change, and the economic supporting capacity index had the largest change. The decline in water resources carrying capacity in most districts and counties was during a period of relatively rapid economic development; (4) It was predicted that the water resource carrying capacity of Nanxian, Hanshou, and Xiangyin counties around the South Dongting Lake would significantly increase in 2025, shifting from overload to a critical state, and maintaining this trend in the coming years; (5) Dingcheng District of Changde City would gradually transform from critical to overload, and maintain this trend in the coming years. To sum up, the key to improve the water resources carrying capacity of Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone was to prevent water resources pollution, optimize water resources allocation and improve water resources utilization efficiency. It was recommended from our study that the government should continue to strengthen the awareness of water environment protection and water environment governance measures, and regularly conduct environmental governance performance evaluation to improve the accuracy of comprehensive governance. Based on the long-term objectives, we should formulate measures to protect Dongting Lake, promote the construction of new urbanization, and develop green industries such as ecological agriculture, ecological industry, and ecological tourism according to local conditions.

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Section: Model Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment and early warning of water resources carrying capacity in Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone

Fu,

Ding,

Wang

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…Furthermore, influenced by the resource management policies of various regions, the water usage patterns and resource management models vary with regional differences [39][40][41]. Additionally, due to the variations in water resource depletion and carrying capacity in each region [42,43], the SNWDP has differing effects on water resource restoration in various areas [44,45]. Therefore, a detailed assessment for each region is necessary to accurately address the impact of the SNWDP on surface water changes in different areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Divergent Changes in Surface Water Area after the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China

Guo,

Li,

Xiao

et al. 2024

Remote Sensing

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Water scarcity is a significant challenge in China, and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) aims to address the water deficit in the northern region. This study analyses Landsat 5/7/8 remote sensing imagery from 2001 to 2020 on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform to assess the impact of the SNWDP on surface water bodies in water-receiving areas. Moreover, by integrating MODIS evapotranspiration data and ERA5 meteorological reanalysis data, this study comprehensively assesses the SNWDP’s contribution to varied surface water body changes. Using an improved multi-temporal water frequency method, this study extracts max, seasonal, and year-long water surface areas. The results reveal that Beijing and Henan provinces have experienced significant increases in water surface areas post-SNWDP, with their max water surface area growing at a rate of 10.42 km2/yr and 33.49 km2/year, respectively. However, water surface areas in several provinces, especially those along the east route, were not observed to increase. The spatially detailed Mann–Kendall test indicates that the expansion of year-long water bodies is mostly concentrated near the central route project, revealing spatial heterogeneity in the water replenishment effect. Cropland and impervious surfaces are the main contributors to transfers in and out of water bodies. Meteorological and water use factors for spatial variations in water changes are also identified. These findings provide insights into the varied hydrological consequences of the SNWDP and contribute to the evaluation and management of similar large-scale water diversion projects around the world.

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“…For example, Wang, G. et al [27] conducted quantitative and qualitative evaluation of WRCC in the Changji Economic Circle under different social development plans by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), grey correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression model. Han, Y. et al [28] comprehensively evaluated WRCC in northern China, combining multiple factors including water resources, economy, and society. The river basin level mainly studies river basins within the watershed range.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in China Based on DPSIR Model

Zhang

2023

Sustainability

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Water resources are an important aspect of China’s ecological governance. Due to the uneven spatial distribution of water resources in China, it is necessary to analyze the differences in the sustainable development level of water resources in different regions. This article combines the national policies of “promoting the coordinated development of the three waters” and “integration of people, city, industry, and economy” to construct an evaluation index system for the sustainable development of water resources in China using the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC). The spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of water resources sustainable development in 31 provinces of China are analyzed. The results show that (1) the level of sustainable development of China’s water resources has significantly increased, with the index increasing from 6.229 in 2005 to 9.792 in 2021. (2) The spatial pattern of China’s WRCC shows an increasing trend from west to east and from north to south, and the aggregation status is obvious and fluctuates during the entire study period. (3) Currently, the strength of the expenditure of research and development funds for industrial enterprises and the sewage treatment capacity continue to increase, and the interaction between different factors shows a two-factor enhancement or nonlinear enhancement. To further improve the level of sustainable development of water resources, each province needs to formulate development plans based on local conditions and promote the coordinated development of industrial restructuring, environmental governance, and water resources development.

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Risk Assessment of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity: A Case Study in North China

Cited by 7 publications

References 61 publications

Assessment and early warning of water resources carrying capacity in Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone

Assessment and early warning of water resources carrying capacity in Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone

The Divergent Changes in Surface Water Area after the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China

Sustainability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in China Based on DPSIR Model

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