Review of science-based assessments of species vulnerability: Contributions to decision-making for assisted migration

Abstract

Assessing climate change impacts on forest species can significantly assist forest management planning. Recently, many tools have been developed for assessing species-specific vulnerability to climate change. These tools are question-based assessments that consider multiple criteria for individual species; the criteria are related to exposure and sensitivity to climate change. The following tools are discussed in relation to their use in Canada: (1) the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index; (2) the System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species to Climate Change (SAVS); (3) the Forest Tree Genetic Risk Assessment; (4) the Index for Predicting Tree Species Vulnerability; (5) ecological standards developed for the assisted migration of Torreya taxifolia; and (6) the Seeds of Success Program. These tools can all be applied to different forest species and they vary in such areas as their species-specific evaluation criteria, means for addressing uncertainty, and the integration of climate change models.

Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people

“…This is often accomplished by obtaining expert opinion and extracting information from the published literature. Life trait approaches to vulnerability assessment that have been used for trees and other plant Continues species (reviewed by Beardmore and Winder, 2011) include the Forest Tree Genetic Risk…”

Integrated Scenario Planning and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Framework with Application to Forest Planning

“…Scenario II addresses both forest health and diversification of the forestry sector. To achieve the forest health goal, in the light of recent MPB epidemic in BC and imminent climate change, several studies promoted management strategies that would change the current age and tree species abundance (Beardmore & Winder, 2011). A recent study projected a significant shift of tree species in British Columbia as a result of changing climatic conditions and an increasing occurrence of Douglas fir and western larch in the areas north of their current occurrence (Hamann & Wang, 2005).…”