RETRACTED: Estimation of failure probability in water pipes network using statistical model

Fadaee, Mohammad Javad; Tabatabaei, R.

doi:10.1016/j.engfailanal.2011.02.013

Cited by 12 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Some of the considered states, namely burn-in, normal operations and wear-out phases, are described in a more detailed way in [4]. The quality of a pipeline can be also modelled using other approaches, see, e.g., [7,17,25,28,29].…”

Section: State 2 -mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of course, other types of costs (like costs of water losses, loss of revenues etc. -see, e.g., [4]) can be also incorporated into the considered numerical model.…”

Section: Model Of Maintenance Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of course, other types of costs (like costs of water losses, loss of revenues etc. -see, e.g., [4]) can be also incorporated into the considered numerical model.We assume that the mentioned costs depend on the type of maintenance service (i.e., if replacement or repair of some part is necessary), the length of this service and the type of the connection. Therefore we have:…”

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On simulation of maintenance costs for water distribution system with fuzzy parameters

Romaniuk

2016

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Article citation info: (*) Tekst artykułu w polskiej wersji językowej dostępny w elektronicznym wydaniu kwartalnika na stronie www.ein.org.pl IntroductionThe main aim of each water distribution system (WDS, water pipes network) is to deliver water of desirable quality and assumed quantity for customers. In order to meet these requirements, maintenance services, like repairs and replacements of broken or malfunctioned parts, are required.The literature devoted to the problems of simulation of the WDS behaviour and to analysis of its reliability is very rich (see, e.g, [3, 4, 7, 10, 11, 15, 17, 19, 25, 29] for a description of various approaches, and [16,28] for a more detailed review of methods and literature). Because of a necessary long-time horizon planning (e.g. 20 or even 50 years), an influence of a value of the money in the future on maintenance costs should be taken into account. Also such a problem is addressed in many papers.For example, in [20], the main aim is to estimate and validate various cost functions for different types of assets of a WDS, if their hydraulic (e.g., flow, pump head, pump power) and physical characteristics (e.g., volume, material, nominal diameter) are stored in a specially prepared data base. A method of a linear regression is used to model a dependency between various types of the costs (like an equipment cost) and the mentioned characteristics of a pipe (like a nominal diameter) based on data from several Portuguese urban water utilities. However, a method for a calculation of a present value of the total costs is not developed there in a more detailed way.Contrary to the previous paper, in [12], let's say, a "macro-management" approach for a WDS rehabilitation problem with a real long-time horizon is widely discussed. In this paper, both an economics and hydraulic capacity of a WDS is analysed, if a deterioration of a pipe follows the Hazen-Williams equation. The total costs are related RomAniuk m. on simulation of maintenance costs for water distribution system with fuzzy parameters. Eksploatacja i niezawodnoscmaintenance and Reliability 2016; 18 (4): 514-527, http://dx.doi.org/10.17531/ein.2016.4.6. to a rehabilitation of a pipe and some additional maintenance costs (mainly breakage repair costs). To model the breakage rate, the exponential dependency on an age of a pipe is assumed. The present value of the total costs is then calculated using a constant discount rate. The main aim of the whole procedure is to minimize the total costs associated with a rehabilitation, if some hydraulic constraints, necessary for a quality and a quantity of the supplied water, are preserved. As mentioned in this paper, an analysis period for such a procedure is typically equal to 30-60 years.There are also more specialized approaches to the problem of the costs estimation. For example, in [25], an optimisation procedure for a problem of minimising the costs is also described. In this case, the authors express the total cost of a renewal, risk and an unavailability of a WDS as one func...

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Section: State 2 -mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of course, other types of costs (like costs of water losses, loss of revenues etc. -see, e.g., [4]) can be also incorporated into the considered numerical model.…”

Section: Model Of Maintenance Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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On simulation of maintenance costs for water distribution system with fuzzy parameters

Romaniuk

2016

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“…Articles of scientists [11,12] presented analyses and methods that make it possible to establish causal relationships of failures in the form of a «failure matrix tree». Assessing the reliability of water supply system as a renewable technical system made it possible to build statistical models of failure intensity con sidering time and to display graphically in the form of a reliability curve [13]. Any theoretical research [11][12][13] should be verified by practical experiment.…”

Section: Literature Review and Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Assessing the reliability of water supply system as a renewable technical system made it possible to build statistical models of failure intensity con sidering time and to display graphically in the form of a reliability curve [13]. Any theoretical research [11][12][13] should be verified by practical experiment. For this purpose, it is necessary to analyze the types of failures in separate facilities of water supply system.…”

Section: Literature Review and Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%