Response of climate to regional emissions of ozone precursors: sensitivities and warming potentials

Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Joshi, Manoj; Shine, Keith P.; Stuber, N.; Ponater, M.; Sausen, R.; Hauglustaine, Didier; LI, L.

doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2005.00152.x

Cited by 98 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 51 publications

(82 reference statements)

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“…While we hesitate to draw any conclusions about individual cities due to the lack of a detailed sub-grid parameterisation of cities in our model (as discussed earlier), these general differences between tropical and extratropical cities in our model can, however, be related to the differences in modes of transport of tracers away from the cities, as previously reported. [9,21] Tropical cities are influenced more by rapid convective transport, while extratropical cities allow a greater local pollution buildup, and thus have greater potential for titration of O 3 by NO x .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of megacities on global atmospheric chemistry: a modelling study

Butler

Lawrence

2009

Environ. Chem.

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Environmental context. Over half of the population of the world now live in urban areas, and the number of so-called 'megacities', with populations of ∼10 million or more, is growing at a tremendous rate. We show how these patterns of urbanisation have the potential to influence the atmospheric chemical environment on a global scale, particularly through the effects of emissions from megacities on the reactive nitrogen cycle. With the growing worldwide interest in the study of the effects of megacities at all spatial scales, such as current European Union projects MEGAPOLI and CityZen, our study represents the first of many future studies that examine the effects of megacities on atmospheric chemistry on the global scale.Abstract. We present the first study of the effects of megacities on global atmospheric chemistry using a global threedimensional chemical transport model. The effects on air quality, radiative forcing and atmospheric oxidation capacity are disproportionately smaller than the proportion of anthropogenic emissions due to megacities. Disproportionately large effects of megacities are modelled for reactive nitrogen compounds, in particular PAN (peroxy acetyl nitrate), which has increased in abundance globally by 9% due to megacities under year 2000 conditions, with 23% of the Earth experiencing an increase of 10% or more. These influences decrease under two very different future emission scenarios. Under a low-emission future scenario, the influence of megacities is generally reduced, and under a high-emission future scenario, although the local influence of megacities is increased, the geographical extent of the influence becomes smaller. In our model, the individual grid cells that contain megacities respond to the megacity emissions differently depending on their latitude. Tropical megacity grid cells generally show increased ozone year-round, while northern extratropical megacities generally show reduced ozone year-round. Better parameterisation of the sub-grid effects of megacities is an important issue for future work.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of megacities on global atmospheric chemistry: a modelling study

Butler

Lawrence

2009

Environ. Chem.

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“…More significant at the global scale is the role of non-CO 2 forcing agents, both those accounted (the major non-CO 2 greenhouse gases) and unaccounted (aerosols) in inventories. However, full inclusion of these forcing agents in extensions to carbon quotas at regional and national scales is beyond the present scope, requiring more complex climate modelling to resolve issues such as local impacts of short-lived climate forcers 39,40 , nonlinear force-response relationships 41 and cooling by some aerosol species 36 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

et al. 2014

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Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2°C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions

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“…Hence, NO x emissions have suppressed the methane increase since preindustrial times, a fact that is not directly represented on the commonly used RF charts (1, 7), which are based on changes in abundance; emissions-based views of the RF caused by ozone precursors make this compensation more visible (8,9). On a global-mean level, the negative RF caused by methane loss is of the same order as the positive RF caused by the ozone increase (6,(8)(9)(10)(11)(12); thus, even the sign of the net RF caused by NO x emissions is uncertain. Hence, confidence in the tropospheric ozone RF does not translate into confidence in the total climate impact of emissions of ozone precursors, which has consequences for the design of metrics to measure the relative climate impacts of NO x .…”

Section: Difficulties In Defining a Gwp For No Xmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hence, equal NO x emissions in different regions can lead to quite different globally averaged ozone changes depending on their temporal, geographical, or vertical (in the case of aircraft) location. Emissions from low-latitude (and generally less developed) nations have a larger RF and GWP than equal emissions from midlatitude (and generally more developed) nations (6,12,17), which is also a complicating factor for policy makers (5).…”

Section: Difficulties In Defining a Gwp For No Xmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hence, even if the positive ozone and negative methane RFs (or indeed the resulting surface-temperature change) were fortuitously to cancel in the global mean, it would not mean that the local climate impact would be zero. In addition, even the global-mean temperature response may depend on the regional distribution of the RF, a fact that recently has begun to be considered in metric design (6,18).…”

Section: Difficulties In Defining a Gwp For No Xmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scientific issues in the design of metrics for inclusion of oxides of nitrogen in global climate agreements

Shine

Berntsen²,

Fuglestvedt³

et al. 2005

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The Kyoto Protocol seeks to limit emissions of various greenhouse gases but excludes short-lived species and their precursors even though they cause a significant climate forcing. We explore the difficulties that are faced when designing metrics to compare the climate impact of emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO x) with other emissions. There are two dimensions to this difficulty. The first concerns the definition of a metric that satisfactorily accounts for its climate impact. NO x emissions increase tropospheric ozone, but this increase and the resulting climate forcing depend strongly on the location of the emissions, with low-latitude emissions having a larger impact. NO x emissions also decrease methane concentrations, causing a global-mean radiative forcing similar in size but opposite in sign to the ozone forcing. The second dimension of difficulty concerns the intermodel differences in the values of computed metrics. We explore the use of indicators that could lead to metrics that, instead of using global-mean inputs, are computed locally and then averaged globally. These local metrics may depend less on cancellation in the global mean; the possibilities presented here seem more robust to model uncertainty, although their applicability depends on the poorly known relationship between local climate change and its societal͞ecological impact. If it becomes a political imperative to include NO x emissions in future climate agreements, policy makers will be faced with difficult choices in selecting an appropriate metric.climate change ͉ climate metrics ͉ Kyoto Protocol T he Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims to control emissions of relatively long-lived greenhouse gases. It excludes emissions of short-lived species, or their precursors, perhaps reflecting the difficulties policymakers would have faced had they tried to include them. Nevertheless, short-lived species are believed to contribute significantly to human-induced climate change (1). Their absence from the protocol could weaken efforts to mitigate climate change by weakening the ''comprehensive'' approach embodied in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; indeed, the U.S. administration has cited the absence of black carbon and tropospheric ozone from the protocol as one reason why they have not become signatories (see www.whitehouse.gov͞news͞releases͞ 2001͞06͞20010611-2.html). The absence could also lead to a distortion of national priorities in emission reductions and discourage full engagement in the protocol if proper credit is not given to measures leading to reductions in climatically significant emissions.The overall question that we pose here is whether there are fundamental barriers to the inclusion of short-lived species in climate treaties. We focus on the most important precursor to tropospheric ozone, oxides of nitrogen (NO x ) (1), which poses some unique difficulties. The discussion has wider applicability to other ozone precursors, aerosols, and contrails and contrail ...

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Response of climate to regional emissions of ozone precursors: sensitivities and warming potentials

Cited by 98 publications

References 51 publications

The influence of megacities on global atmospheric chemistry: a modelling study

The influence of megacities on global atmospheric chemistry: a modelling study

Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

Scientific issues in the design of metrics for inclusion of oxides of nitrogen in global climate agreements

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