Reproduction number of monkeypox in the early stage of the 2022 multi-country outbreak

Abstract

Monkeypox, a fast-spreading viral zoonosis outside of Africa in May 2022, has scientists on alert. We estimated the reproduction number is estimated to be 1.29 (95% CrI: 1.26, 1.33) by aggregating all cases in 70 countries as of July 22, 2022.

Global monkeypox case hospitalisation rates: A rapid systematic review and meta-analysis

“… 24 A recent analysis indicates that the effective reproduction number of the current outbreak is likely above one world-wide. 25 To date in the 2022 outbreak, the majority of reported MPX cases have been among individuals who identify as gay, bisexual, or MSM. 26 , 27 …”

Global differences in natural transmission rates of Monkeypox virus

“…Monkeypox virus (MPXV) is characterized by complex transmission routes concentrated on high-risk populations. Its effective reproductive number ( R eff ) is still locally estimated to be greater than 1 (1.02-1.39) in people over 40 years old, even though they are partially vaccinated for smallpox, and already have some immunity 2 . As for the basic reproductive number ( R 0 ), previous estimations did not eliminate the impact of existing coverage of the smallpox vaccine and coupled with the imperfection of the MPX surveillance system, which makes the derived R 0 likely underestimated 3 .…”

Atypical and unique transmission of monkeypox virus during the 2022 outbreak: an overview of the current state of knowledge

“…CFRs have been low, continuous human-to-human transmission has been observed, and the outbreak remains in the exponential growth phase (Figure 4A). An estimate of the reproduction number based on all cases in this outbreak through July 22, 2022 was 1.29, indicating the potential for MPXV's continued spread (81). In contrast to historical importations of MPXV, the first detected cases in this outbreak have not been linked to endemic areas as of July, 2022 (6).…”