Regional-Level Carbon Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis: A STIRPAT Case Study in Henan Province, China

Zhang, Pengyan; He, Jinling; Hong, Xin; Zhang, Wei; Qin, Chengzhe; Pang, Bo; Li, Yanyan; Liu, Yu

doi:10.3390/su9122342

Cited by 33 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…where c represents elasticity of GDP per capita, h represents elasticity of quadratic term of GDP per capita. From Equation (6), we can obtained the elasticity (EE IA ) of GDP per capita to the carbon emissions [11].…”

Section: Environmental Kuznets Curve (Ekc)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…How to realize this promise without compromising the socio-economic development has become an important issue that needs to be solved urgently. Therefore, empirical analysis and projection on carbon emissions are useful for the government to provide a theoretical and scientific basis for the sustainable development of low-carbon economy [4].At present, the research on energy-related carbon emissions are mainly classified as the calculation of carbon emissions [7-9], analysis of decomposition methods and influencing factors [5,10,11], scenarios analysis and prediction of carbon emissions [12][13][14][15], the application of technology and policy simulation to reduce carbon emissions [16][17][18]. Moreover, the studies on influencing factors is a critical field to make projection and reduction policies for carbon emissions [5].…”

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confidence: 99%

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Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Energy Base, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China

et al. 2019

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The realization of carbon emissions peak is important in the energy base area of China for the sustainable development of the socio-economic sector. The STIRPAT model was employed to analyze the elasticity of influencing factors of carbon emissions during 1990-2010 in the Xinjiang autonomous region, China. The results display that population growth is the key driving factor for carbon emissions, while energy intensity is the key restraining factor. With 1% change in population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity, energy structure, urbanization level, and industrial structure, the change in carbon emissions was 0.80%, 0.48%, 0.20%, 0.07%, 0.58%, and 0.47%, respectively. Based on the results from regression analysis, scenario analysis was employed in this study, and it was found that Xinjiang would be difficult to realize carbon emissions peak early around 2030. Under the condition of the medium-high change rates in energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure, and with the low-medium change rates in population, GDP per capita, and urbanization level, Xinjiang will achieve carbon emissions peak at of 626.21, 636.24, 459.53, and 662.25 million tons in the year of 2030626.21, 636.24, 459.53, and 662.25 million tons in the year of , 2030626.21, 636.24, 459.53, and 662.25 million tons in the year of , 2040626.21, 636.24, 459.53, and 662.25 million tons in the year of , and 2040 the background of Chinese carbon emissions peak around 2030, this paper puts forward relevant policies and suggestions to the sustainable socio-economic development for the energy base area, Xinjiang autonomous region.Sustainability 2019, 11, 4220 2 of 18 in order to mitigate the risks of global warming, the international community has made great efforts to reduce carbon emissions [4]. As an emerging market, though simultaneous development and accelerating industrialization, informatization, agricultural modernization, and urbanization, due to its long-term growth mode of high consumption, high pollution and low output, China has become the country with the largest carbon emissions [5]. In 2006, Chinese carbon emissions surpassed the United States of America (USA) and became the world's largest emitter [4]. In 2015, China accounted for 28.65% of the world's total carbon emissions, exceeding the sum of the USA (14.93%) and the European Union (9.68%), which was ranked second and third in the world, respectively (Global Carbon Project. http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/ CO 2 emissions). With this, China has incurred huge attention from the world, which posed great international political pressures on China. In face of this situation, China pledged at the Copenhagen Climate Summit to increase the percentage of renewable energy in energy consumption structure to 15%, and to cut 40-45% of the energy intensity in 2020 when compared to the 2005 levels. Moreover, China promised at the Paris Agreement to increase the percentage of renewable energy in energy consumption structure to 20% and to cut 60-65% of the e...

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Section: Environmental Kuznets Curve (Ekc)mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Energy Base, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China

et al. 2019

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“…This could happen, especially in China, due to the strong government leadership of the Communist party. Certainly, there have been many studies which have shown the effective role of regulation by the Chinese government for sustainable development [11][12][13][14].…”

Section: Regulation Toward Green Technologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They concluded that local governments should promote technical change and scale efficiency change, to improve urbanization levels, with optimal strategies entailing strengthening policy support and encouraging investments in technology in specific areas such as Urban Function Development, and City Development Zone [13]. Zhang et al utilized STIRPAT model to conduct analysis about the driving factors for future carbon emission in Henan Province for the period of 1995-2014 [14]. According to them, every 1% increase in the population, GDP per-capita, energy intensity, and the level of urbanization development will contribute to the growth of emissions by 1.099, 0.193, 0.043, and 0.542%, respectively [14], implying that 'smart regulation' is necessary.…”

Section: Regulation Toward Green Technologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Zhang et al utilized STIRPAT model to conduct analysis about the driving factors for future carbon emission in Henan Province for the period of 1995-2014 [14]. According to them, every 1% increase in the population, GDP per-capita, energy intensity, and the level of urbanization development will contribute to the growth of emissions by 1.099, 0.193, 0.043, and 0.542%, respectively [14], implying that 'smart regulation' is necessary.…”

Section: Regulation Toward Green Technologymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional Cooperation for the Sustainable Development and Management in Northeast Asia

Choi

2018

Sustainability

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Abstract:The Northeast Asian countries are the most pro-active regions in the world to take on the challenges of sustainable development. With this background, there has been an annual series of Sustainable Asia Conferences (SAC) which date back to the first inaugural meeting in 2009. This special issue consists of selected papers from the SAC 2017, held in Nanjing, China, from 23-25 June. With ten years of accumulated experience, SAC became one of the leading international conferences for presenting innovative or fundamental advances in sustainable development issues for Asia. Over time, SAC introduced more performance-oriented approaches to handle the feasibility of the sustainable development solutions. In this special issue, most of the papers focused on the precise and accurate sustainable governance mechanism in harmonizing economic development with a healthier life, while enhancing the quality of all standards of living. The majority of papers in this special issue also deal with two important pillars of the sustainable development: regional cooperation and regulatory effectiveness. This special edition will propose unique implications and feasible or workable suggestions against global warming and environmental degradation.

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Analyzing driving forces of China’s carbon emissions from 1997 to 2040 and the potential emission reduction path: through decomposition and scenario analysis

Song

Zhao

Wang

2021

Clean Techn Environ Policy

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Energy and environmental policies are important methods for the government to restrain carbon emissions growth. Identifying the potential dynamic trends of China's carbon emissions under different scenarios has important reference significance for the government's policy implementation. This paper firstly predicted China's carbon emissions from 2017 to 2040 based on three energy transition scenarios at the industrial level. Then, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition model was applied to evaluate the driving forces of emissions changes during 1997-2040. Finally, the Spatial-Temporal Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model was used to explore the emissions reduction potential and the potential reduction path at provincial level. The results showed that (1) as the reduction in energy intensity cannot offset the growth of industrial scale, the carbon emissions of all industries have shown an increasing trend from 1997 to 2017; (2) In the current policies scenario, China's carbon emissions cannot reach the peak before 2040. And only in the sustainable development scenario, the carbon emissions of the three industries will all reach the peaks before 2030. And the development of non-fossil energy will reduce carbon emissions by more than 30%; (3) Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Heilongjiang are key provinces and improving energy efficiency of the secondary industry is a potential way to promote carbon emissions reduction.

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Regional-Level Carbon Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis: A STIRPAT Case Study in Henan Province, China

Cited by 33 publications

References 66 publications

Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Energy Base, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China

Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Energy Base, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China

Regional Cooperation for the Sustainable Development and Management in Northeast Asia

Analyzing driving forces of China’s carbon emissions from 1997 to 2040 and the potential emission reduction path: through decomposition and scenario analysis

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