Regional estimates of carbon sequestration potential: linking the Rothamsted Carbon Model to GIS databases

Falloon, Pete; Smith, Pete; Smith, Joanne Ursula; Szabó, Péter Jánoš; Coleman, Kevin; Marshall, S.

doi:10.1007/s003740050426

Cited by 112 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…This model has been satisfactorily evaluated against data from long-term experiments across a comprehensive combination of ecosystems and climate conditions P. Gottschalk et al: Global SOC projections using RothC 3153 Diels et al, 2004;Kamoni et al, 2007;Shirato et al, 2005;Falloon and Smith, 2002), including arid environments (Jenkinson et al, 1999;Skjemstad et al, 2004) and land use change (Cerri et al, 2003;Smith et al, 1997). It has been used to make regional-and global-scale predictions in a variety of studies (Wang and Polglase, 1995;Falloon et al, 1998;Tate et al, 2000;Falloon and Smith, 2002;Smith et al, 2007). Here we use the RothC model to investigate how climate change predictions affect the possible futures of SOC.…”

Section: P Gottschalk Et Al: Global Soc Projections Using Rothcmentioning

confidence: 99%

How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

et al. 2012

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Abstract. We use a soil carbon (C) model (RothC), driven by a range of climate models for a range of climate scenarios to examine the impacts of future climate on global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The results suggest an overall global increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all scenarios, but with a different extent of increase among the climate model and emissions scenarios. The impacts of projected land use changes are also simulated, but have relatively minor impacts at the global scale. Whether soils gain or lose SOC depends upon the balance between C inputs and decomposition. Changes in net primary production (NPP) change C inputs to the soil, whilst decomposition usually increases under warmer temperatures, but can also be slowed by decreased soil moisture. Underlying the global trend of increasing SOC under future climate is a complex pattern of regional SOC change. SOC losses are projected to occur in northern latitudes where higher SOC decomposition rates due to higher temperatures are not balanced by increased NPP, whereas in tropical regions, NPP increases override losses due to higher SOC decomposition. The spatial heterogeneity in the response of SOC to changing climate shows how delicately balanced the competing gain and loss processes are, with subtle changes in temperature, moisture, soil type and land use, interacting to determine whether SOC increases or decreases in the future. Our results suggest that we should stop looking for a single answer regarding whether SOC stocks will increase or decrease under future climate, since there is no single answer. Instead, we should focus on improving our prediction of the factors that determine the size and direction of change, and the land management practices that can be implemented to protect and enhance SOC stocks.

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Section: P Gottschalk Et Al: Global Soc Projections Using Rothcmentioning

confidence: 99%

How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

et al. 2012

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“…It has also been used on a regional scale (Falloon et al 1998b; and on a global scale (Jenkinson et al 1991;Polglase and Wang 1992).…”

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Modified rothamsted carbon model for andosols and its validation: changing humus decomposition rate constant with pyrophosphate-extractable Al

Shirato

Hakamata

Taniyama³

2004

Soil Science and Plant Nutrition

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“…Modelling allows us to predict the short-, medium-and long-term trends of SOC dynamics and SOC sequestration under projected future scenarios of climate change (Lucht et al, 2006;Smith et al, 2005;Wan et al, 2011), which is crucial in order to take measures for an adequate management in agroforestry ecosystems. By linking simulation models to spatial data sets (soils, land use), it is possible to determine current and future estimates of regional SOC stocks and SOC sequestration (Batjes, 2006;Falloon et al, 1998;Hashimoto et al, 2012). Moreover, patterns in SOC dynamics related to soil and land use features can be analysed.…”

Section: Muñoz-rojas Et Al: Modelling Soc Stocks In Global Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling soil organic carbon stocks in global change scenarios: a CarboSOIL application

et al. 2013

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Abstract. Global climate change, as a consequence of the increasing levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration, may significantly affect both soil organic C storage and soil capacity for C sequestration. CarboSOIL is an empirical model based on regression techniques and developed as a geographical information system tool to predict soil organic carbon (SOC) contents at different depths. This model is a new component of the agro-ecological decision support system for land evaluation MicroLEIS, which assists decision-makers in facing specific agro-ecological problems, particularly in Mediterranean regions. In this study, the CarboSOIL model was used to study the effects of climate change on SOC dynamics in a Mediterranean region (Andalusia, S Spain). Different downscaled climate models were applied based on BCCR-BCM2, CNRMCM3, and ECHAM5 and driven by SRES scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2). Output data were linked to spatial data sets (soil and land use) to quantify SOC stocks. The CarboSOIL model has proved its ability to predict the short-, medium-and long-term trends (2040s, 2070s and 2100s) of SOC dynamics and sequestration under projected future scenarios of climate change. Results have shown an overall trend towards decreasing of SOC stocks in the upper soil sections (0-25 cm and 25-50 cm) for most soil types and land uses, but predicted SOC stocks tend to increase in the deeper soil section (0-75 cm). Soil types as Arenosols, Planosols and Solonchaks and land uses as "permanent crops" and "open spaces with little or no vegetation" would be severely affected by climate change with large decreases of SOC stocks, in particular under the medium-high emission scenario A2 by 2100. The information developed in this study might support decision-making in land management and climate adaptation strategies in Mediterranean regions, and the methodology could be applied to other Mediterranean areas with available soil, land use and climate data.

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Regional estimates of carbon sequestration potential: linking the Rothamsted Carbon Model to GIS databases

Cited by 112 publications

References 16 publications

How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

Modified rothamsted carbon model for andosols and its validation: changing humus decomposition rate constant with pyrophosphate-extractable Al

Modelling soil organic carbon stocks in global change scenarios: a CarboSOIL application

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