Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle
Abstract:With the objective of tackling the problem of inaccurate long-term western pacific subtropical high (WPSH) forecasts, based on the concept of dynamical model reconstruction and improved self-memorization principle, a new dynamical forecasting model of WPSH area (SI) index is developed. To overcome the problem of single initial prediction value, the largest Lyapunov exponent is introduced to improve the traditional self-memorization function, making it more appropriate to describe the chaotic systems, such as W… Show more
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