Reconstruction and prediction of the total solar irradiance: From the Medieval Warm Period to the 21st century

Herrera, Víctor Manuel Velasco; Mendoza, B.; Herrera, Graciela Velasco

doi:10.1016/j.newast.2014.07.009

Cited by 58 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The date of the New Solar Minimum has been assigned at around 2040 by Mörner et al [6], at 2030-2040 by Velasco Herrera [27], and at around 2040 by Abdussamatov [23], implying a fairly congruent picture despite different ways of transferring past signals into future predictions.…”

Section: Predicting Solar Variability and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions

Mörner¹

2015

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By about 2030-2040, the Sun will experience a new grand solar minimum. This is evident from multiple studies of quite different characteristics: the phasing of sunspot cycles, the cyclic observations of North Atlantic behaviour over the past millennium, the cyclic pattern of cosmogenic radionuclides in natural terrestrial archives, the motions of the Sun with respect to the centre of mass, the planetary spin-orbit coupling, the planetary conjunction history and the general planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction. During the previous grand solar minima-i.e. the Spörer Minimum (ca 1440-1460), the Maunder Minimum (ca 1687-1703) and the Dalton Minimum (ca 1809-1821)-the climatic conditions deteriorated into Little Ice Age periods.

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Section: Predicting Solar Variability and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions

Mörner¹

2015

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“…Energy from the Sun reaching the Earth drives almost every known physical and biological cycle in the Earth system. With the launch of the Hickey-Frieden cavity radiometer (HF) on Nimbus 7 in 1978 October, space-based observations have lasted more than 30 yr. Now it is well known that TSI varies on timescales of minutes to decades (even longer than several solar cycles; Willson & Hudson 1991;Fröhlich 2006Fröhlich , 2009Fröhlich , 2013Wenzler et al 2006;Kopp & Lean 2011;Li et al 2012;Dasi-Espuig et al 2014;Velasco Herrera et al 2015). TSI generates the Earth's radiation environment and influences its temperature and atmosphere;even asmall persistent variation of the solar irradiance takes part in climate changes, so it is very important for us to understand how the variations of TSI affect the Earth's climate system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Causes the Inter-Solar-Cycle Variation of Total Solar Irradiance?

Xiang

Kong

2015

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The Physikalisch Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos total solar irradiance (TSI), Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitoring TSI, and Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium TSI are three typical TSI composites. Magnetic Plage Strength Index (MPSI) and Mount Wilson Sunspot Index (MWSI) should indicate the weak and strong magnetic field activity on the solar full disk, respectively. Cross-correlation (CC) analysis of MWSI with three TSI composites shows that TSI should be weakly correlated with MWSI, and not be in phase with MWSI at timescales of solar cycles. The wavelet coherence (WTC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC) of TSI with MWSI indicate that the inter-solar-cycle variation of TSI is also not related to solar strong magnetic field activity, which is represented by MWSI. However, CC analysis of MPSI with three TSI composites indicates that TSI should be moderately correlated and accurately in phase with MPSI at timescales of solar cycles, and that the statisticalsignificancetest indicates that the correlation coefficient of three TSI composites with MPSI is statistically significantly higher than that of three TSI composites with MWSI. Furthermore, the cross wavelet transform (XWT) and WTC of TSI with MPSI show that the TSI is highly related and actually in phase with MPSI at a timescale of a solar cycle as well. Consequently, the CC analysis, XWT, and WTC indicate that the solar weak magnetic activity on the full disk, which is represented by MPSI, dominates the inter-solar-cycle variation of TSI.

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“…The periodicity of 11.02 years could be associated with solar activity (Velasco Herrera et al, 2015). The 5.83 and 2.45 years periodicities may be associated with the ENSO.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Besides the estimates of Total Solar Irradiance (Velasco Herrera et al, 2015) shown in Fig. 7 for the years between 2015 and 2030 (solar cycle 24-25), using Least Squares Support Vector Machines (Vapnik, 1998;Suykens et al, 2002), decadal estimates for Mexican forest fires for the same period were performed for this study.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mexican forest fires and their decadal variations

Herrera

2016

Advances in Space Research

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A high forest fire season of two to three years is regularly observed each decade in Mexican forests. This seems to be related to the presence of the El Niñ o phenomenon and to the amount of total solar irradiance. In this study, the results of a multi-cross wavelet analysis are reported based on the occurrence of Mexican forest fires, El Niñ o and the total solar irradiance for the period 1970-2014. The analysis shows that Mexican forest fires and the strongest El Niñ o phenomena occur mostly around the minima of the solar cycle. This suggests that the total solar irradiance minima provide the appropriate climatological conditions for the occurrence of these forest fires. The next high season for Mexican forest fires could start in the next solar minimum, which will take place between the years 2017 and 2019. A complementary space analysis based on MODIS active fire data for Mexican forest fires from 2005 to 2014 shows that most of these fires occur in cedar and pine forests, on savannas and pasturelands, and in the central jungles of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.

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Reconstruction and prediction of the total solar irradiance: From the Medieval Warm Period to the 21st century

Cited by 58 publications

References 56 publications

The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions

The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions

What Causes the Inter-Solar-Cycle Variation of Total Solar Irradiance?

Mexican forest fires and their decadal variations

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