Recent observed climate change over the Arabian Peninsula

Abstract

[1] We have examined trends in temperature and precipitation parameters for the Arabian Peninsula (AP) during the last 2 to 3 decades. The data set has been carefully quality controlled and checked for homogeneity. Although of low density (21 stations) and relatively short time period, a clear picture of climate change in the region has emerged. The general pattern of the AP mean annual temperature trend is one of warming, with 14 of 21 stations show statistically significant warming at 0.05 level and most at 0.001 level and only one (Seeb) showing statistically significant cooling. The highest statistically significant mean annual warming trends are found in Oman (Sur = 1.03°C decade −1 ) and Emirates (Dubai = 0.81°C decade −1 ). The season of maximum warming in mean temperature is March to April. The highest monthly mean temperature trend in the AP occurs in Sur in May (1.47°C decade −1 ). There is a broad statistically significant increase in mean annual maximum temperature in AP in 12 out of 21 stations, with the highest trends in central and eastern/southeastern AP. Only SW AP and the Gulf of Oman do not show warming. The highest monthly maximum temperature trend in the AP occurs in Bahrain in March (2.27°C decade −1 ). The second highest significant warming trends are reported in Doha in February (1.54°C decade −1 ). For minimum temperature, 16 out of 21 stations show statistically significant warming trends, with the highest annual trends observed in the Emirates (Dubai = 1.24°C decade −1 ), northwest Oman (Sohar = 1.17°C decade −1 ) and Qatar (Doha = 1.13°C decade −1 ). The highest monthly minimum temperature warming rate occurred in October. Both Dubai and Kuwait reported the highest significant rate of 2.00°C decade −1 . The general mean annual diurnal temperature range trend is negative in the AP, with six out of 21 stations show statistically significant negative trends while three stations show statistically significant positive trends. Trends in mean annual precipitation are significant at only two stations which show a decrease in precipitation.

Teleconnections and variability in observed rainfall over Saudi Arabia during 1978–2010

“…Our results for the trend analysis are in general agreement with those of Nasrallah and Balling (), who pointed out a statistically insignificant annual negative trend for Dhahran for the duration 1940–1989. Our results are also in agreement with the recent results of AlSarmi and Washington (). In support of these, for the duration 1985–2008, we find a decreasing annual trend for Tabuk of −2.3 mm year −1 .…”

Teleconnections and variability in observed rainfall over Saudi Arabia during 1978–2010

“…Our results for the trend analysis are in general agreement with those of Nasrallah and Balling (), who pointed out a statistically insignificant annual negative trend for Dhahran for the duration 1940–1989. Our results are also in agreement with the recent results of AlSarmi and Washington (). In support of these, for the duration 1985–2008, we find a decreasing annual trend for Tabuk of −2.3 mm year −1 .…”

Surface air temperature variability over the Arabian Peninsula and its links to circulation patterns

“…In spring (Figure b), the AP temperature anomalies also exhibit a warming trend of 0.12 °C/decade, correlated (CC = 0.54) with the global temperature anomalies, showing a trend of 0.10 °C/decade. In summer, we observed an abrupt increase in the AP SATs starting from the late 1980s (Figure c,d), in agreement with the previously reported results (Almazroui, ; AlSarmi and Washington, ). The AP SAT also exhibited a significant warming trend of 0.13 °C (0.12 °C) per decade, compared to the global trend of 0.07 °C (0.06 °C) per decade.…”

A multi‐decadal assessment of the performance of gauge‐ and model‐based rainfall products over Saudi Arabia: climatology, anomalies and trends

“…However, these trends are statistically insignificant at the 95% confidence level. Our results agree well with AlSarmi and Washington () who found a general decreasing trend of rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula, although being statistically insignificant in most of the sites. The same finding was also confirmed for other neighbouring regions [e.g.…”

Teleconnections and variability in observed rainfall over Saudi Arabia during 1978–2010

“…Our results for the trend analysis are in general agreement with those of Nasrallah and Balling (), who pointed out a statistically insignificant annual negative trend for Dhahran for the duration 1940–1989. Our results are also in agreement with the recent results of AlSarmi and Washington (). In support of these, for the duration 1985–2008, we find a decreasing annual trend for Tabuk of −2.3 mm year −1 .…”

Surface air temperature variability over the Arabian Peninsula and its links to circulation patterns

“…In spring (Figure b), the AP temperature anomalies also exhibit a warming trend of 0.12 °C/decade, correlated (CC = 0.54) with the global temperature anomalies, showing a trend of 0.10 °C/decade. In summer, we observed an abrupt increase in the AP SATs starting from the late 1980s (Figure c,d), in agreement with the previously reported results (Almazroui, ; AlSarmi and Washington, ). The AP SAT also exhibited a significant warming trend of 0.13 °C (0.12 °C) per decade, compared to the global trend of 0.07 °C (0.06 °C) per decade.…”

A multi‐decadal assessment of the performance of gauge‐ and model‐based rainfall products over Saudi Arabia: climatology, anomalies and trends

“…However, these trends are statistically insignificant at the 95% confidence level. Our results agree well with AlSarmi and Washington () who found a general decreasing trend of rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula, although being statistically insignificant in most of the sites. The same finding was also confirmed for other neighbouring regions [e.g.…”

Teleconnections and variability in observed rainfall over Saudi Arabia during 1978–2010

“…Our results for the trend analysis are in general agreement with those of Nasrallah and Balling (), who pointed out a statistically insignificant annual negative trend for Dhahran for the duration 1940–1989. Our results are also in agreement with the recent results of AlSarmi and Washington (). In support of these, for the duration 1985–2008, we find a decreasing annual trend for Tabuk of −2.3 mm year −1 .…”

Surface air temperature variability over the Arabian Peninsula and its links to circulation patterns

“…In spring (Figure b), the AP temperature anomalies also exhibit a warming trend of 0.12 °C/decade, correlated (CC = 0.54) with the global temperature anomalies, showing a trend of 0.10 °C/decade. In summer, we observed an abrupt increase in the AP SATs starting from the late 1980s (Figure c,d), in agreement with the previously reported results (Almazroui, ; AlSarmi and Washington, ). The AP SAT also exhibited a significant warming trend of 0.13 °C (0.12 °C) per decade, compared to the global trend of 0.07 °C (0.06 °C) per decade.…”

A multi‐decadal assessment of the performance of gauge‐ and model‐based rainfall products over Saudi Arabia: climatology, anomalies and trends

“…However, these trends are statistically insignificant at the 95% confidence level. Our results agree well with AlSarmi and Washington () who found a general decreasing trend of rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula, although being statistically insignificant in most of the sites. The same finding was also confirmed for other neighbouring regions [e.g.…”