Real-Time High-Resolution Prediction of Orographic Rainfall for Early Warning of Landslides

Onishi, Ryo; Hirai, Joe; Kolomenskiy, Dmitry; Yasuda, Yuki

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-16898-7_17

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The complex terrain and heterogeneous land surface of the south China region are crucial in promoting active convection. Previous studies (Giorgi et al, 2016;Mishra et al, 2018;Schumacher et al, 2020;Onishi et al, 2023) have demonstrated that a higher spatial resolution improves the performance of convective rainfall forecasts by more accurately resolving topographic features. Acknowledging the importance of resolution in forecasting severe convective weather, both the Chinese government and the community increasingly support the development of high-resolution operational forecast models specifically designed for warm-sector rainstorms and sudden local rainstorms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Machine learning parameterization of the multi-scale Kain–Fritsch (MSKF) convection scheme and stable simulation coupled in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF–ML v1.0

Zhong,

Yu,

2024

Geosci. Model Dev.

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Abstract. Warm-sector heavy rainfall along the south China coast poses significant forecasting challenges due to its localized nature and prolonged duration. To improve the prediction of such high-impact weather events, high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to more accurately represent topographic effects. However, as these models' grid spacing approaches the scale of convective processes, they enter a “gray zone”, where the models struggle to fully resolve the turbulent eddies within the atmospheric boundary layer, necessitating partial parameterization. The appropriateness of applying convection parameterization (CP) schemes within this gray zone remains controversial. To address this, scale-aware CP schemes have been developed to improve the representation of convective transport. Among these, the multi-scale Kain–Fritsch (MSKF) scheme enhances the traditional Kain–Fritsch (KF) scheme, incorporating modifications that facilitate its effective application at spatial resolutions as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increase in the application of machine learning (ML) models across various domains of atmospheric sciences, including efforts to replace conventional physical parameterizations with ML models. This work introduces a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model intended to replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. This multi-output Bi-LSTM model is capable of simultaneously predicting the convection trigger while also modeling the associated convective tendencies and precipitation rates with a high performance. Data for training and testing the model are generated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model over south China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, this work evaluates the performance of the WRF model coupled with the ML-based CP scheme against simulations with the traditional MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the promising potential of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Machine learning parameterization of the multi-scale Kain–Fritsch (MSKF) convection scheme and stable simulation coupled in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF–ML v1.0

Zhong,

Yu,

2024

Geosci. Model Dev.

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“…The land surface in the South China region is characterized by complex terrain and heterogeneity, which play a crucial role in promoting more active convections. Previous studies (Giorgi et al, 2016;Mishra et al, 2018;Schumacher et al, 2020;Onishi et al, 2023) have shown that higher spatial resolution improves the performance of convective rainfall forecasts by resolving topographic characteristics more accurately.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Machine Learning Parameterization of the Multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) Convection Scheme and stable simulation coupled in WRF using WRF-ML v1.0

Zhong,

Yu,

2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.

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Global Promotion of Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk: Two Years on P-LRT

Sassa

2024

Progress in Landslide Research and Technology

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This article presents an overview and a concise review of a global promotion of understanding and reducing landslide disaster risk, based on 2 years of publication of Progress in Landslide Research and Technology (P-LRT). The Vol. 1 Issue 1, Vol. 1 Issue 2, Vol. 2 Issue1 and Vol. 2 Issue 2 of P-LRT were comprised of a total of ninety-seven articles from thirty-six countries/regions from Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, and South America. The first four issues embody recent progress in landslide research and technology for practical applications and the benefit for the society contributing to the Kyoto Landslide Commitment 2020.

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Real-Time High-Resolution Prediction of Orographic Rainfall for Early Warning of Landslides

Cited by 3 publications

References 33 publications

Machine learning parameterization of the multi-scale Kain–Fritsch (MSKF) convection scheme and stable simulation coupled in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF–ML v1.0

Machine learning parameterization of the multi-scale Kain–Fritsch (MSKF) convection scheme and stable simulation coupled in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF–ML v1.0

Machine Learning Parameterization of the Multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) Convection Scheme and stable simulation coupled in WRF using WRF-ML v1.0

Global Promotion of Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk: Two Years on P-LRT

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