Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions

Abstract

<jats:p>Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 were often implemented under considerable uncertainty and a lack of scientific evidence. Assessing the effectiveness of the individual interventions is critical to inform future preparedness response plans. Here we quantify the impact of 4,579 NPIs implemented in 76 territories on the effective reproduction number, <jats:italic>R<jats:sub>t</jats:sub></jats:italic>, of COVID-19. We use a hierarchically coded data set of NPIs and propose a novel modelling approach that combines four computational techniques, which together allow for a worldwide consensus rank of the NPIs based on their effectiveness in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. We show how the effectiveness of individual NPIs strongly varies across countries and world regions, and in relation to human and economic development as well as different dimensions of governance. We quantify the effectiveness of each NPI with respect to the epidemic age of its adoption, i.e., how early into the epidemics. The emerging picture is one in which no one-fits-all solution exists, and no single NPI alone can decrease <jats:italic>R<jats:sub>t</jats:sub></jats:italic> below one and that a combination of NPIs is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. We show that there are NPIs considerably less intrusive and costly than lockdowns that are also highly effective, such as certain risk communication strategies and voluntary measures that strengthen the healthcare system. By allowing to simulate ``what-if'' scenarios at the country level, our approach opens the way for planning the most likely effectiveness of future NPIs.</jats:p>

A structured open dataset of government interventions in response to COVID-19

“…The dataset is readily usable for modelling and machine learning analyses and exhibits a great analytical flexibility 12 . In particular, researchers have leveraged on the hierarchical structure and the granularity of the data to disentangle the individual impacts of the NPIs on the reduction of the effective reproduction number through a top-down approach (from theme to code).…”

“…The study further distinguishes the impact of different levels of implementation of some specific measures, e.g. those related to face covering 12 .…”

“…Combined with publicly available data on the number of confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths, the CCCSL dataset makes it possible to assess the effectiveness of the control policies on the COVID-19 epidemic, e.g. the epidemic growth rate or the daily reproduction numbers 12 . The standardized coding facilitates an inter-country comparison of government responses.…”

Network-based prediction of COVID-19 epidemic spreading in Italy

“…Flaxman et al (2020) study the effect on COVID-19 transmission of the major non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) across 11 European countries for the period from the start of the COVID-19 epidemics in February 2020 until May 4th 2020. In a more general work, Haug et al (2020) quantify the effectiveness of the worldwide NPIs to mitigate the spreading of COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 showing that this effectiveness is strongly related to the economic development as well as the dimension of governance of a country. At a country level, Hadjidemetriou et al (2020) use driving, walking and transit real-time data to investigate the impact of UK government control measures on human mobility reduction and consequent COVID-19 deaths.…”

Measures to maintain regular operations and prevent outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 in childcare facilities or schools under pandemic conditions and co-circulation of other respiratory pathogens

“…The scientific publications since the end of May 2020 have confirmed the recommendations of the statement of several medical societies [ 34 ], even though discussions on the effectiveness of individual non-pharmaceutical measures continue [ 35 ]. According to the authors' current assessment, teachers in schools and staff in day-care facilities have only a low risk of infection through contact with potentially infected children if basic hygiene measures are adhered to [ 36 ], [ 37 ].…”