RAND Program Evaluation Toolkit for Countering Violent Extremism

Helmus, Todd C.; Matthews, Miriam; Ramchand, Rajeev; Beaghley, Sina; Stebbins, David; Kadlec, Amanda; Brown, Michael A.; Kofner, Aaron; Acosta, Joie D.

doi:10.7249/tl243

Cited by 23 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…However, it is well recognized that overt U.S. messaging against ISIS, even if it uses the same themes highlighted above, will likely fall flat. Not only does the United States have poor overall credibility in the region, but it is also poorly positioned to directly address theological or other various factors that motivate young recruits (Helmus, York, and Chalk, 2013;Miller, 2015). Because of this, it is critical for the United States and its international partners to work with influential communities in the region that can more effectively and credibly counter the ISIS narrative.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining ISIS Support and Opposition Networks on Twitter

Bodine-Baron¹,

Helmus²,

Magnuson³

et al. 2016

Self Cite

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining ISIS Support and Opposition Networks on Twitter

Bodine-Baron¹,

Helmus²,

Magnuson³

et al. 2016

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“…This companion report summarizes the methods used to develop the toolkit (Helmus et al, 2017) and provides additional background on its development.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and Pilot Test of the RAND Program Evaluation Toolkit for Countering Violent Extremism

Beaghley¹,

Helmus²,

Matthews³

et al. 2017

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“…Indeed, access to, and use of, extremist websites may act as one factor contributing to initial involvement in violent extremism Male Youth Perceptions of 15 (Hegghammer, 2006;Helmus et al, 2013). These websites present ideological arguments that culminate in support for violence (Gerstenfeld, Grant, & Chiang, 2003), and individual's espousing such beliefs are considered to be at greater risk of engaging in violent extremism (Monahan, 2012;Pressman, 2009).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Male Youth Perceptions of Violent Extremism: towards a Test of Rational Choice Theory

Dhami¹,

Murray

2016

Span. J. Psychol.

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University, for her assistance in acting as an external coder, blind to the aims of the study. Male Youth Perceptions of 2 AbstractUnderstanding how people perceive the pros and cons of risky behaviors such as terrorism or violent extremism represents a first step in developing research testing rational choice theory aiming to explain and predict peoples' intentions to engage in, or support, these behaviors.Accordingly, the present study provides a qualitative, exploratory analysis of a sample of 57 male youths' perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of: (a) accessing a violent extremist website, (b) joining a violent extremist group, and (c) leaving such a group. Youth perceived significantly more drawbacks than benefits of joining a violent extremist group (p = . In the present paper we suggest that understanding how people perceive the pros and cons of violent extremism represents a first step in developing theoretically-guided research that aims to explain and predict peoples' intentions and decisions to support and (dis)engage in violent extremism. The research reported in the present paper takes this first step by providing a qualitative, exploratory analysis of male youth's perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of specific behaviors associated with violent extremism. Before describing our approach, we briefly outline the theoretical perspective that our exploratory work can contribute to, and review relevant past research. We also discuss the methodological challenges that we (and other researchers) have faced. "virtually none of them has been tested in a systematic way." This is partly because they are not always amenable to testing due to a lack of precision or specification. In addition, not all theories have clear implications for counter-terrorism policy. The present study was not designed to test a specific theory. Rather, it was designed to provide exploratory data that might lead to future tests of a rational choice approach to violent extremism.Rational choice theories employed in psychological and criminological research draw in an approximate manner on the expected utility model in Economics (e.g., Gruber, 2001); extending its focus on subjective expected utility. According to this theory, a rational decision-maker (in this case a violent extremist) would decide whether or not to engage in violent extremism by assessing the subjective importance of the possible benefits and drawbacks of engaging in the behavior, in addition to assessing the subjective probabilities of these possible outcomes. The expected utility of the behavior would be determined by the probability-weighted difference between the benefits and drawbacks. The more that the weighted difference favors the benefits, the more likely the decision-maker is to engage in the relevant behavior.2 Thus, rational choice theory can help researchers to understand the cognitive process by which an individual makes the above risk assessments and then acts on them. In fact, researchers can test more or less 'rational' models (e.g., Dhami...

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RAND Program Evaluation Toolkit for Countering Violent Extremism

Cited by 23 publications

References 7 publications

Examining ISIS Support and Opposition Networks on Twitter

Examining ISIS Support and Opposition Networks on Twitter

Development and Pilot Test of the RAND Program Evaluation Toolkit for Countering Violent Extremism

Male Youth Perceptions of Violent Extremism: towards a Test of Rational Choice Theory

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