Rainfall Probability Analysis for Crop Planning of Unakoti and West Tripura District of Tripura, India

Abstract

Rainfall is one of the most important climatic variables that determine the spatial and temporal patterns of climate variability of a region, which provides useful information for the planning of agricultural production. For the purpose of crop planning, rainfall data of two districts of Tripura viz., Unakoti and West Tripura for aperiod of 20 years (2001-2020) were collected and used to analyze probability of weekly rainfall. The incomplete Gamma distribution probability analysis using the method suggested by Victor (2000) was used to find and analyze weekly rainfall probability for the studied districts. The investigation revealed that total annual rainfall of Unakoti at 90%, 75% and 50% probability is predicted to be 1640 mm, 1686 mm and 1722 mm respectively. The total annual rainfall of the West Tripura at 90%, 75% and 50% probability is likely to be 1631 mm, 1847 mm and 2108.4 mm respectively. Crops found suitable for kharif season are blackgram, greengram, aman rice. The crops which can be grown in rabi season include cole crops, tomato, chilli, potato, pea, toria etc. Based on the study, crops suited to summer season include short duration greengram, aush rice, sesame, jute in all land situations.

Markov Chain Rainfall Probability Model and Rainy Season Length in Kendrapara District, Odisha for Efficient Crop Management Strategies

“…Farm output would get affected owing to dry spell in critical crop growth stages during good rainfall years too. Hence, systematic information on rainfall patterns, their variability and probability paves the way for crop selection, adoption of better agronomic practices, and designing of different rainwater storage structures 6,7,8,9,10,11,12 and conservation of excess rainwater in storage structures to utilize during dry spells. 13,14 For instance, the characterization of rainfall like weekly, monthly, inter-and intra-seasonal distribution of rainfall, the dates of onset, cessation, and rainy season length is very important for reaping a good harvest in the challenged rainfed agroecosystem.…”