Rainfall intensification in tropical semi-arid regions: the Sahelian case

Panthou, Gérémy; Lebel, Thierry; Vischel, Théo; Quantin, Guillaume; Sané, Youssouph; Ba, Abdramane; Ndiaye, Ousmane; Diongue-Niang, Aïda; Diop-Kane, Mariane

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac334

Cited by 122 publications

(109 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(35 reference statements)

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“…The running trend analysis indicates statistically significant positive increases for short durations (1 to 2 hr), starting in the 1980s (Figures S4c-S4h). However, the intensification of rainfall with warmer temperatures agrees with what has been found in observations of other semiarid regions (Panthou et al, 2018; and in climate models in the United States (Prein et al, 2016). However, the intensification of rainfall with warmer temperatures agrees with what has been found in observations of other semiarid regions (Panthou et al, 2018; and in climate models in the United States (Prein et al, 2016).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 86%

“…Our results contradict the results obtained by Singer and Michaelides (2017) (2017) using climate and regional model simulations that suggested no changes or decreases in rainfall intensities in southeastern Arizona. The increase in daily rainfall intensities in semiarid environments since the 1970s has been reported in the Sahelian region in Africa by Panthou et al (2018). The increase in daily rainfall intensities in semiarid environments since the 1970s has been reported in the Sahelian region in Africa by Panthou et al (2018).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

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Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long‐Term High‐Density Gauge Network

Demaria

Hazenberg

Scott

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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As the atmosphere gets warmer, rainfall intensification is expected across the planet with anticipated impacts on ecological and human systems. In the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico, the highly variable and localized nature of rainfall during the North American Monsoon makes it difficult to detect temporal changes in rainfall intensities in response to climatic change. This study addresses this challenge by using the dense, subdaily, and daily observations from 59 rain gauges located in southeastern Arizona. We find an intensification of monsoon subdaily rainfall intensities starting in the mid‐1970s that has not been observed in previous studies or simulated with high‐resolution climate models. Our results highlight the need for long‐term, high spatiotemporal observations to detect environmental responses to a changing climate in highly variable environments and show that analyses based on limited observations or gridded data sets fail to capture temporal changes potentially leading to erroneous conclusions.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long‐Term High‐Density Gauge Network

Demaria

Hazenberg

Scott

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Figure 13. Spatio-temporal frequency of "missed" monsoons (black squares) in Senegambia (up) and Middle Niger River basin (bottom) from 1951 to 2015; in both areas, the stations are located in the table from the north to the south; "missed" according to the criteria defined by Sivakumar [116]: no event of more than 20 mm occurred that was not followed by a dry period longer than 7 days during the 1st month of the monsoon. Figure 13.…”

Section: The Onset Of the Monsoon Through Agronomical Criteriamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The intra-seasonal distribution of extreme events has likely changed, and should be analyzed further in future studies; • An increase in maximal instant rainfall intensity and maximal rainfall at 5 min time step has been noticed in the very last few years [116].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evolution of Surface Hydrology in the Sahelo-Sudanian Strip: An Updated Review

Descroix

Guichard

Grippa

et al. 2018

Water

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Abstract:In the West African Sahel, two paradoxical hydrological behaviors have occurred during the last five decades. The first paradox was observed during the 1968-1990s 'Great Drought' period, during which runoff significantly increased. The second paradox appeared during the subsequent period of rainfall recovery (i.e., since the 1990s), during which the runoff coefficient continued to increase despite the general re-greening of the Sahel. This paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on the drivers of these paradoxical behaviors, focusing on recent works in the West African Sahelo/Sudanian strip, and upscaling the hydrological processes through an analysis of recent data from two representative areas of this region. This paper helps better determine the respective roles played by Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCC), the evolution of rainfall intensity and the occurrence of extreme rainfall events in these hydrological paradoxes. Both the literature review and recent data converge in indicating that the first Sahelian hydrological paradox was mostly driven by LULCC, while the second paradox has been caused by both LULCC and climate evolution, mainly the recent increase in rainfall intensity.

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The possible role of the Sahel Greenbelt on the occurrence of climate extremes over the West African Sahel

Saley

Salack²,

Sanda

et al. 2019

Atmospheric Science Letters

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The “Great Green Wall” of trees (GGW) is an emblematic Pan‐African initiative of re‐greening the Sahel through afforestation and assisted natural regeneration of trees in order to tackle desertification, soil degradation and to mitigate greenhouse gases. This study investigates (i.e., The Sahel Greenbelt) the potential impacts of the GGW and other assisted natural regeneration of trees on the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events over the Sahel and West Africa using the regional climate model (RegCM version 4.3). Our investigation shows that the Sahel greenbelt would increase significantly the number of rainy days (+9%) and the intensity of heavy rain events over the Sahel while extreme dry spells decrease (−4%). Important shifts appear in the modes of variability of all precipitation indices. These probability distribution shapes reveal tremendous intra‐seasonal variability as the new land use land cover (LULC) changes affect the regional climate. Changes in atmospheric circulation including increase of the moisture convergence and evapotranspiration appeared to be the main drivers of heavy rainfall changes. For temperature extremes, the maximum temperature shows significant decrease around the GGW area during summer and an increase in other seasons while the diurnal temperature range increases significantly without an evident change in temperature trends. Intra‐seasonal distributions of temperature extremes show less obvious changes compared to precipitation extremes. This investigation highlights the role of the planned and implemented re‐greening policies (i.e., afforestation by the GGW project and policies of assisted natural regeneration of trees) in affecting the frequency and the amplitude of some climatic extreme events (e.g., heavy rain events, maximum temperatures, etc.). These planned LULC policies need to be accounted for in the diagnostics and future projections of climate extremes over the region.

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Rainfall intensification in tropical semi-arid regions: the Sahelian case

Cited by 122 publications

References 35 publications

Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long‐Term High‐Density Gauge Network

Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long‐Term High‐Density Gauge Network

Evolution of Surface Hydrology in the Sahelo-Sudanian Strip: An Updated Review

The possible role of the Sahel Greenbelt on the occurrence of climate extremes over the West African Sahel

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