Race, Roll‐Off, and Racial Transition: The Influence of Political Change on Racial Group Voter Roll‐Off in Urban Elections^*

Abstract

Many cities in the United States have undergone or are undergoing racial transition from a majority white to a majority black population. Accompanying this is a change in the racial makeup of elections and officeholders. This article seeks to explain racial patterns in voter roll-off as a city undergoes racial transition. Copyright (c) 2007 by the Southwestern Social Science Association.

The Intersection of Redistricting, Race, and Participation

“…And with the help of party and candidate outreach, the 2008 presidential campaign saw African Americans mobilized to support Barack Obama (Philpot, Shaw, and McGowen 2009). Likewise, black rolloff rates are substantially lower in campaigns involving black candidates, when black politicians hold powerful positions in government, or when elections touch on racerelated issues (Herron and Sekhon 2005;Vanderleeuw and Engstrom 1987;Vanderleeuw and Liu 2002;Vanderleeuw and Sowers 2007). Presidential contests, mayoral elections in large cities, and ballot referendums on what are most likely "easy" issues (Carmines and Stimson 1980) with a racial connotation allow for enough information that black constituents are mobilized to participate at higher rates than would be predicted from a simple SES model.…”

Whose Votes Count?

“…Perhaps the most consistent finding in the literature on uncounted ballots, most of which are undervotes, is that they are more prevalent among non-White voters, particularly African Americans (Bullock & Hood, 2002;Darcy & Schneider, 1989;Kimball et al, 2004;Kimball & Kropf, 2005). However, that gap has been shown to be a function of the type of voting equipment (Tomz & Van Houweling, 2003) and the political and racial dynamics in elections (Herron & Sekhon, 2005;Vanderleeuw & Liu, 2002;Vanderleeuw & Sowers, 2007;Vanderleeuw & Utter, 1993). In systems that use voting machinery such as San Francisco's, Black voters' ballots for president are as likely to be counted as others' and Latinos' are more likely (Knack & Kropf, 2003).…”

Candidate Extremism and Voter Roll‐Off in US House Elections

“…Several previous studies have examined whether the racial context of an election can contribute to reduced roll‐off. For instance, roll‐off among increasingly black voting populations decreases when African‐Americans hold prominent positions in local government, or when elections are expected to be competitive (see: Vanderleeuw and Liu 2002; Vanderleeuw and Sowers 2007). Moreover, referenda on Southern racial issues appear to influence roll‐off of both black and white voters: Feig (2007) found evidence that while the roll‐off gap between black and white voters did not shrink in the instance of a ballot initiative on interracial marriage in the Deep South, roll‐off overall diminished.…”

“…I therefore model roll‐off as a function of both the ideological distance between candidates in a contested House election and as a function of their separate ideal points. As noted above, much previous work on roll‐off suggests that racial differences between two candidates can lead to decreased roll‐off, via the desire of minority voters to achieve greater descriptive representation, the desire of white voters to prevent the election of a minority candidate, or a general sense among all voters that the contest is especially salient (Engstrom and Caridas 1991; Feig 2007; Harris and Zipp 1999; Vanderleeuw and Liu 2002; Vanderleeuw and Sowers 2007; Vanderleeuw and Utter 1993). Similar dynamics might play out when voters perceive clear divisions not on candidate race, but on their ideological position.…”