Quantitative uncertainty analyses of ancient atmospheric CO2 estimates from fossil leaves

Beerling, David J.; Fox, Mark A.; Anderson, C. W.

doi:10.2475/09.2009.01

Cited by 87 publications

(93 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The results for the modern GPP scenario agree well with other proxy data for the time slice between 50 and 60 Ma from δ 13 C of paleosols (1,36,73), leaf stomata (36,(74)(75)(76), and δ 13 C of marine phytoplankton (77), which nearly all range between 300 and 800 ppm (Fig. 2B).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 77%

Temperature and atmospheric CO ₂ concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite

Gehler¹,

Gingerich

Pack

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is a remarkable climatic and environmental event that occurred 56 Ma ago and has importance for understanding possible future climate change. The Paleocene-Eocene transition is marked by a rapid temperature rise contemporaneous with a large negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE). Both the temperature and the isotopic excursion are well-documented by terrestrial and marine proxies. The CIE was the result of a massive release of carbon into the atmosphere. However, the carbon source and quantities of CO 2 and CH 4 greenhouse gases that contributed to global warming are poorly constrained and highly debated. Here we combine an established oxygen isotope paleothermometer with a newly developed triple oxygen isotope paleo-CO 2 barometer. We attempt to quantify the source of greenhouse gases released during the Paleocene-Eocene transition by analyzing bioapatite of terrestrial mammals. Our results are consistent with previous estimates of PETM temperature change and suggest that not only CO 2 but also massive release of seabed methane was the driver for CIE and PETM.PETM | temperature | CO 2 concentration | mammals

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 77%

Temperature and atmospheric CO ₂ concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite

Gehler¹,

Gingerich

Pack

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…This means that error bars can convey different meanings, which hinders comparisons across methods. In recent years, Monte Carlo simulations for propagating uncertainty in multiple input variables have been developed for all five proxy systems11555977. So long as the reported percentile ranges are identical, these simulations facilitate better cross-method comparisons.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For uncertainties with the pedogenic carbonate method derived by varying only S (z), we adopt for the 16 and 84 percentiles the generic recommendation of +100%/−50% of the median value calculated from multifactorial Monte Carlo simulations78; these uncertainties are larger and probably more representative than the reported uncertainties. Similarly, for stomatal estimates whose uncertainties only take into account variance in the transfer function, we assume 16 and 84 percentiles equal to +100%/−40% of the median value, a range that takes into account representative uncertainty in both the transfer function and the fossil measurements77.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years

2017

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The evolution of Earth's climate on geological timescales is largely driven by variations in the magnitude of total solar irradiance (TSI) and changes in the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere. Here we show that the slow ∼50 Wm−2 increase in TSI over the last ∼420 million years (an increase of ∼9 Wm−2 of radiative forcing) was almost completely negated by a long-term decline in atmospheric CO2. This was likely due to the silicate weathering-negative feedback and the expansion of land plants that together ensured Earth's long-term habitability. Humanity's fossil-fuel use, if unabated, risks taking us, by the middle of the twenty-first century, to values of CO2 not seen since the early Eocene (50 million years ago). If CO2 continues to rise further into the twenty-third century, then the associated large increase in radiative forcing, and how the Earth system would respond, would likely be without geological precedent in the last half a billion years.

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“…However, there is a wide range of estimates for the Eocene (Koch et al, 1992;Sinha and Stott, 1994;Ekart et al, 1999;Greenwood et al, 2003;Royer, 2003;Pagani et al, 2005;Wing et al, 2005;Lowenstein and Demicco, 2006;Fletcher et al, 2008;Zachos et al, 2008;Beerling et al, 2009;Bijl et al, 2010;Smith et al, 2010;Doria et al, 2011;Kato et al, 2011;Maxbauer et al, 2014). Smith et al (2010) reconstructed the value of the early Eocene pCO 2 ranging from 580 ± 40 to 780 ± 50 ppmv using the stomatal ratio method (recent standardization) based on both SI and SD.…”

Section: Paleoclimate Reconstructed Historymentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimates of late middle Eocene pCO2 based on stomatal density of modern and fossil Nageia leaves

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Atmospheric pCO 2 concentrations have been estimated for intervals of the Eocene using various models and proxy information. Here we reconstruct late middle Eocene (42.0-38.5 Ma) pCO 2 based on the fossil leaves of Nageia maomingensis Jin et Liu collected from the Maoming Basin, Guangdong Province, China. We first determine relationships between atmospheric pCO 2 concentrations, stomatal density (SD) and stomatal index (SI) using "modern" leaves of N. motleyi (Parl.) De Laub, the nearest living species to the Eocene fossils. This work indicates that the SD inversely responds to pCO 2 , while SI has almost no relationship with pCO 2 . Eocene pCO 2 concentrations can be reconstructed based on a regression approach and the stomatal ratio method by using the SD. The first approach gives a pCO 2 of 351.9 ± 6.6 ppmv, whereas the one based on stomatal ratio gives a pCO 2 of 537.5 ± 56.5 ppmv. Here, we explored the potential of N. maomingensis in pCO 2 reconstruction and obtained different results according to different methods, providing a new insight for the reconstruction of paleoclimate and paleoenvironment in conifers.

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Quantitative uncertainty analyses of ancient atmospheric CO2 estimates from fossil leaves

Cited by 87 publications

References 36 publications

Temperature and atmospheric CO ₂ concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite

Temperature and atmospheric CO ₂ concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite

Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years

Estimates of late middle Eocene <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub> based on stomatal density of modern and fossil <i>Nageia</i> leaves

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Quantitative uncertainty analyses of ancient atmospheric CO2 estimates from fossil leaves

Cited by 87 publications

References 36 publications

Temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite

Temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite

Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years

Estimates of late middle Eocene &lt;i&gt;p&lt;/i&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; based on stomatal density of modern and fossil &lt;i&gt;Nageia&lt;/i&gt; leaves

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Temperature and atmospheric CO ₂ concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite

Temperature and atmospheric CO ₂ concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite

Estimates of late middle Eocene <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub> based on stomatal density of modern and fossil <i>Nageia</i> leaves