Quantifying underestimates of long-term upper-ocean warming

Durack, Paul J.; Gleckler, P. J.; Landerer, F. W.; Taylor, Karl E.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2389

Cited by 128 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Based on Argo data from 2006 to 2014, Roemmich et al [63] found an even larger ratio of Southern to Northern Hemisphere ocean heat uptake (67 to 98 %) possibly as a result of greater negative aerosol forcing in the Northern Hemisphere and/or ocean heat uptake processes. This larger ratio raises concern about the use of the model results for adjusting the observational estimates, as suggested by Durack et al [61]. One of the mapping techniques used in Roemmich et al [63] also directly addressed the mapping deficiencies in the tropical Asian archipelago identified in von Schuckmann et al [58] [64] demonstrated agreement between regional ocean-mass trends determined from GRACE data and the difference between altimeter sea level observations and ocean steric sea level change.…”

Section: Sea Level Contributions Steric Sea Level Changementioning

confidence: 81%

“…Uncertainties in the sea level budget are too large for the deep ocean contribution to be inferred [58−60]. Durack et al [61] found that, in the CMIP Phase 3 (CMIP3) and CMIP5 climate model simulations, 60 % of the heat uptake occurred in the Southern Hemisphere. In contrast, the observational estimates ranged from about 35 [62] to about 50 % [49], suggesting that historical ocean heat content estimates may be biased low by various amounts because of lack of data in the Southern Hemisphere.…”

Section: Sea Level Contributions Steric Sea Level Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5's assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003-2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993-2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likel...

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Section: Sea Level Contributions Steric Sea Level Changementioning

confidence: 81%

Section: Sea Level Contributions Steric Sea Level Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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“…This program, for the first time, allows continuous monitoring of ocean temperature, salinity and velocity concurrently and on a global scale, with all data relayed and made publicly available within hours after collection. The data have been used widely, including for study of hemispheric heat distribution and changes in hydrological cycle [7][8][9] .…”

Section: A Sustainable Global Ocean Observation System Requires Timelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Institutional coordination of global ocean observations

et al. 2014

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Short summaryA sustainable global ocean observation system requires timely implementation of a global ocean observation framework. The recent Qingdao Global Ocean Summit offers an effective mechanism for a coherent institutional response to emerging scientific and societal drivers, and for promoting the capacity building in developing economies that is essential for increasing the value and broadening the funding base of the observation system. Approximately 93% of the additional heat associated with global warming is stored in the ocean 1 , and recent discoveries show that an enhanced heat storage in the subsurface ocean over the past decades contributed to the global surface warming hiatus 2-5 . These highlight the importance of ocean observations in understanding, monitoring and detecting global climate change. Ocean observations, the 'bread and butter' of climate change science, are predominantly conducted by ocean research institutions. However, these endeavors are rarely discussed, let alone organized or coordinated across institutions. Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides an effective mechanism to review and assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information, there is no mechanism for identification of observations that are critically needed, or for coordination of observations that are being made or planned. The absence of such a mechanism represents an impediment to the realization of the full value of the investment in ocean research, and is detrimental to the establishment of a sustainable global ocean observation system. We

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“…More than 80 % of the profiles in the current (to 2016) Argo database were obtained after 2006, and the earlier description of the 0-2000 m OHC was consequently found to depend strongly on the choice of climatological references in data-sparse regions [9,20,39]. Undersampled areas, particularly located in the southern Hemisphere, may have significantly biased low the estimates of global OHC trends between 1970 and 2004 [16]. The uncertain nature of the multi-decadal record was further highlighted by the difficulty of correcting significant biases in expendable bathythermograph measurements, which represented the main source of upper-ocean temperature profiles before the launch of Argo [23,40].…”

Section: The Unabated Heating Of the Upper Ocean The Global Picture Dmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observational Advances in Estimates of Oceanic Heating

Desbruyères

McDonagh

King

2016

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Since the early twenty-first century, improvements in understanding climate variability resulted from the growth of the ocean observing system. The potential for a closure of the Earth's energy budget has emerged with the unprecedented coverage of Argo profiling floats, which now provide a decade (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) of invaluable information on ocean heat content changes above 2000 m. The expertise gained from Argo and repeat hydrography sections motivated the extension of the array toward the ocean bottom, which will progressively reveal the poorly known deep ocean and reduce the uncertainty of its presumed 10-15 % contribution to the 2006-2015 global ocean warming trend of 0.65-0.80 W m −2 . The sustainability and synergy of various observing systems helped to corroborate numerical models and decipher the internal variability of distinct ocean basins. Due to unique observations of the circulation in the North Atlantic, particular attention is paid to heat content changes and their relationship to dynamic variability in that region.

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Quantifying underestimates of long-term upper-ocean warming

Cited by 128 publications

References 26 publications

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Institutional coordination of global ocean observations

Observational Advances in Estimates of Oceanic Heating

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