Quantification of Rotavirus Diarrheal Risk Due to Hydroclimatic Extremes Over South Asia: Prospects of Satellite‐Based Observations in Detecting Outbreaks

Abstract

Rotavirus is the most common cause of diarrheal disease among children under 5. Especially in South Asia, rotavirus remains the leading cause of mortality in children due to diarrhea. As climatic extremes and safe water availability significantly influence diarrheal disease impacts in human populations, hydroclimatic information can be a potential tool for disease preparedness. In this study, we conducted a multivariate temporal and spatial assessment of 34 climate indices calculated from ground and satellite Earth observations to examine the role of temperature and rainfall extremes on the seasonality of rotavirus transmission in Bangladesh. We extracted rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Measurement and temperature data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensors to validate the analyses and explore the potential of a satellite‐based seasonal forecasting model. Our analyses found that the number of rainy days and nighttime temperature range from 16°C to 21°C are particularly influential on the winter transmission cycle of rotavirus. The lower number of wet days with suitable cold temperatures for an extended time accelerates the onset and intensity of the outbreaks. Temporal analysis over Dhaka also suggested that water logging during monsoon precipitation influences rotavirus outbreaks during a summer transmission cycle. The proposed model shows lag components, which allowed us to forecast the disease outbreaks 1 to 2 months in advance. The satellite data‐driven forecasts also effectively captured the increased vulnerability of dry‐cold regions of the country, compared to the wet‐warm regions.

Use of earth observation-derived hydrometeorological variables to model and predict rotavirus infection (MAL-ED): a multisite cohort study

“…Furthermore, that the absolute effect of precipitation was barely significant and that this variable was excluded from the final absolute effect model by stepwise selection might be due to these two competing pathways (the runoff effect versus the concentration effect 4 ) influencing rotavirus transmission in opposite directions in the rainy season compared with drier times of the year, which could cancel each other out unless seasonality is adjusted for. Recent studies have found that these opposing effects, each taking over from the other as rainy seasons give way to drier periods, are a notable feature of rotavirus epidemiology, particularly in southeast Asia 28, 30. The absence of an interaction identified between precipitation and any other hydrometeorological variable is consistent with this variable operating via a separate pathway.…”

Pathogen-Specific Impacts of the 2011–2012 La Niña-Associated Floods on Enteric Infections in the MAL-ED Peru Cohort: A Comparative Interrupted Time Series Analysis

“…While the primary routes of rotavirus transmission involve direct person-to-person transmission or contact with contaminated surfaces and fomites, the importance of waterborne transmission is gaining salience [54]. Flooding in the Solomon Islands in 2014 caused a nationwide outbreak of rotavirus diarrhea [55], while recent evidence from Bangladesh have linked both particular precipitation events-notably the 2007 flood [17]-and rainy days in general to upticks in rotavirus [56]. Previous analyses of data from the South Asian MAL-ED sites have identified secondary seasonal peaks in rotavirus coinciding with the annual monsoon season [39,57] and recent findings of a protective effect of drinking water from tube wells are consistent with these results, since these water supply systems draw upon deeper groundwater reserves that are better protected from flood-related contamination than sources nearer to the surface [58].…”

Rotavirus Epidemiology and Vaccination Tactics

“…Ротавирусной инфекцией заболевает практически каждый ребенок в возрасте до 5 лет, она является причиной водянистой диареи у детей младшего возраста во всем мире 3 . В странах с низким доходом населения первичное заражение детей младше пяти лет ротавирусной инфекцией наблюдается в возрасте от 6 до 9 месяцев (80 % заболеваемости среди детей до 1 года).…”

“…В странах Северного полушария с умеренным климатом выражена зимняя сезонность заболеваемости инфекцией. В регионах Азии, Африки и Латинской Америки эпидемиология ротавирусной инфекции характеризуется высокой степенью передачи в течение всего года, при этом наблюдаются один или два периода подъема циркуляции ротавируса в местностях, где на климат влияют муссоны [3]. На эпидемический процесс определенное действие оказывает значительная разница между ночной и дневной температурами, а также количество дождливых дней [3].…”

“…В регионах Азии, Африки и Латинской Америки эпидемиология ротавирусной инфекции характеризуется высокой степенью передачи в течение всего года, при этом наблюдаются один или два периода подъема циркуляции ротавируса в местностях, где на климат влияют муссоны [3]. На эпидемический процесс определенное действие оказывает значительная разница между ночной и дневной температурами, а также количество дождливых дней [3]. Изменение климата, миграционные потоки, глобализацию логистических потоков и загрязнение воды рассматривают как дополнительные факторы, воздействующие на эпидемический процесс при ротавирусной инфекции [4,5].…”