Purchase timing models in marketing: a review

Kopperschmidt, Kai; Stute, Winfried

doi:10.1007/s10182-008-0096-8

Cited by 14 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The Hawkes self-exciting process [9,10] is a point process model used widely in areas such as neuroscience, seismology, finance, social science, marketing research, and criminology [5,17,3,6,11,7,14,19]. Statistical inference for the classical Hawkes process and its spatial-temporal variant has been studied widely; see e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonparametric Estimation for Self-Exciting Point Processes—A Parsimonious Approach

Chen

Hall

2016

Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics

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There is ample evidence that in applications of self-exciting point-process models, the intensity of background events is often far from constant. If a constant background is imposed, that assumption can reduce significantly the quality of statistical analysis, in problems as diverse as modelling the after-shocks of earthquakes and the study of ultra-high frequency financial data. Parametric models can be used to alleviate this problem, but they run the risk of distorting inference by misspecifying the nature of the background intensity function. On the other hand, a purely nonparametric approach to analysis leads to problems of identifiability; when a nonparametric approach is taken, not every aspect of the model can be identified from data recorded along a single observed sample path. In this paper we suggest overcoming this difficulty by using an approach based on the principle of parsimony, or Occam's Razor. In particular, we suggest taking the pointprocess intensity to be either a constant, or to have maximum differential entropy, in cases where there is not sufficient empirical evidence to suggest that the background intensity function is more complex than those models. This approach is seldom, if ever, used for nonparametric function estimation in other settings, not least because in those cases more data are typically available. However, our "ontological parsimony" argument is appropriate in the context of self-exciting pointprocess models. Supplementary materials are available online.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonparametric Estimation for Self-Exciting Point Processes—A Parsimonious Approach

Chen

Hall

2016

Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics

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“…Thus the NBD model says nothing about when to communicate with a customer. Some extensions of the NBD model have been proposed, although to maintain model tractability, they are based on unrealistic assumptions such as the purchase behavior only depends on the last purchase decision, and that the effect of marketing variables is piecewise constant over time [6,16,10,1,12,14,22,21]. Our analysis finds that these assumptions are violated in actual data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Tracking Temporal Dynamics of Purchase Decisions via Hierarchical Time-Rescaling Model

Kim

Takaya

Sawada

2014

Proceedings of the 23rd ACM International Conference on Conference on Information and Knowledge Management

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Improvements in information technology have made it easier for industry to communicate with their customers, raising hopes for a scheme that can estimate when customers will want to make purchases. Although a number of models have been developed to estimate the time-varying purchase probability, they are based on very restrictive assumptions such as preceding purchase-event dependence and discrete-time effect of covariates. Our preliminary analysis of real-world data finds that these assumptions are invalid: self-exciting behavior, as well as marketing stimulus and preceding purchase dependence, should be examined as possible factors influencing purchase probability. In this paper, by employing the novel idea of hierarchical time rescaling, we propose a tractable but highly flexible model that can meld various types of intrinsic history dependency and marketing stimuli in a continuous-time setting. By employing the proposed model, which incorporates the three factors, we analyze actual data, and show that our model has the ability to precisely track the temporal dynamics of purchase probability at the level of individuals. It enables us to take effective marketing actions such as advertising and recommendations on timely and individual bases, leading to the construction of a profitable relationship with each customer.

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“…As consumers are very different individuals who tend to be influenced by mass media advertisements differently in terms of how they feel about the advertisements and how they judge the content of advertisements, it is crucial for marketers to establish advertising strategies in line with the consumers' purchase habits if the aim is to promote their final purchase (Kopperschmidt & Stute, 2009;Esteban & Herná ndez, 2012).…”

Section: Consumer-focused Advertisementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing the Effectiveness of School Advertisement in Taiwan: Customer-Focused Message Persuasiveness, Exposure Frequency, and Peak Timing

Ho¹

2015

IBR

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Marketing has become an essential function for schools in Taiwan given the steadily increasing competition in the educational market, and advertising media have been the most widely used promotion weapon adopted by educational institutions. However, since marketing has long been an unknown territory to educational institutions, many schools have bemoaned that they face tremendous difficulties in developing their marketing mix. This research aims to explore how students at different levels use what media to search for which information at what time. 1200 questionnaires were administered to students at different educational levels across Taiwan. Finally, we demonstrated how the research findings can be used to improve institutions' marketing efforts.

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Purchase timing models in marketing: a review

Abstract: Purchase timing models, Advertising effects, Self-exciting phenomena, Shot-noise, Functional data analysis,

Cited by 14 publications

References 47 publications

Nonparametric Estimation for Self-Exciting Point Processes—A Parsimonious Approach

Nonparametric Estimation for Self-Exciting Point Processes—A Parsimonious Approach

Tracking Temporal Dynamics of Purchase Decisions via Hierarchical Time-Rescaling Model

Enhancing the Effectiveness of School Advertisement in Taiwan: Customer-Focused Message Persuasiveness, Exposure Frequency, and Peak Timing

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