Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence

Ciavarella, Andrew; Cotterill, Daniel; Stott, Peter A.; Kew, Sarah; Philip, Sjoukje; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van; Skålevåg, Amalie; Lorenz, Philip; Robin, Yoann; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Lehner, Flavio; Zolina, Olga

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w

Cited by 80 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…In the next 30-40 years, the rate of climate change in Russia will significantly exceed the average rate of global warming [170]. In 2020 long heat wave in Siberia recorded at +38°C in Verkhoyansk, the world's pole of cold, being the major Arctic event [3,171], causing melting permafrost and wildfires over the vast area [172]. The extreme heat of summer 2021 has broken almost all temperature records since the beginning of the 21st century over the whole of Russia; temperatures in the Russian Arctic for several days at the end of June were above 30°C, and 15°C higher than normal (base period in some parts of Siberia [173].…”

Section: Russia and Temperature Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2 CW -cold wave; HW -heat wave; μ -arithmetic mean daily temperature for all days for the period 1961-1990, σ -standard deviation of daily temperature distribution. 3 AMI -acute myocardial infarction; ED -external cause disease; CHD -coronary heart disease; CVD -cardiovascular disease; IHD -ischemic heart disease; NA -all non-accidental causes; RD -respiratory disease; RR -relative risk.…”

Section: Combined Effects Of a Heat Wave Urban And Wildfire Air Pollutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is well documented that climatic and weather extremes -heat and cold waves, floods, droughts, etc., are associated with human-induced climate change, and reflect the growing climatic variability . Long-term changes in the Earth's energy balance increase the frequency, intensity and duration of temperature extremes [3,14,16,19,[26][27][28]33,35,36,40,41], the probability of compound and cascading events [1,2,6,13,16,17,20,22,24,29,35,41], including wildfires [17,32,34]. Their accelerating trends are predicted under certain scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions [2,10,16,27,33,38,40].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Health Risks to the Russian Population from Temperature Extremes at the Beginning of the XXI Century

Grigorieva

Revich

2021

Atmosphere

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Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters caused by climatic hazards have a significant and increasing direct and indirect impact on human health. Due to its vast area, complex geographical environment and various climatic conditions, Russia is one of the countries that suffers significantly from frequent climate hazards. This paper provides information about temperature extremities in Russia in the beginning of the 21st century, and their impact on human health. A literature search was conducted using the electronic databases Web of Science, Science Direct, Scopus, and e-Library, focusing on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English and in Russian from 2000 to 2021. The results are summarized in 16 studies, which are divided into location-based groups, including Moscow, Saint Petersburg and other large cities located in various climatic zones: in the Arctic, in Siberia and in the southern regions, in ultra-continental and monsoon climate. Heat waves in cities with a temperate continental climate lead to a significant increase in all-cause mortality than cold waves, compared with cities in other climatic zones. At the same time, in northern cities, in contrast to the southern regions and central Siberia, the influence of cold waves is more pronounced on mortality than heat waves. To adequately protect the population from the effects of temperature waves and to carry out preventive measures, it is necessary to know specific threshold values of air temperature in each city.

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Section: Russia and Temperature Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Combined Effects Of a Heat Wave Urban And Wildfire Air Pollutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Health Risks to the Russian Population from Temperature Extremes at the Beginning of the XXI Century

Grigorieva

Revich

2021

Atmosphere

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“…Siberian peat was used as fuel due to its regional and global importance as wildland fuel [49], its steady smoldering combustion [7], and its increasing importance due to climate change [64,65]. Siberia is home to ~50% of the world's peatland and it has been predicted that the burning of these peatlands may double in the future due to climate change [7].…”

Section: Biomass Burning Fuelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optical Characterization of Fresh and Photochemically Aged Aerosols Emitted from Laboratory Siberian Peat Burning

Iaukea-Lum¹

2022

Atmosphere

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Carbonaceous aerosols emitted from biomass burning influence radiative forcing and climate change. Of particular interest are emissions from high-latitude peat burning because amplified climate change makes the large carbon mass stored in these peatlands more susceptible to wildfires and their emission can affect cryosphere albedo and air quality after undergoing transport. We combusted Siberian peat in a laboratory biomass-burning facility and characterized the optical properties of freshly emitted combustion aerosols and those photochemically aged in an oxidation flow reactor (OFR) with a three-wavelength photoacoustic instrument. Total particle count increased with aging by a factor of 6 to 11 while the total particle volume either changed little (<8%) for 19 and 44 days of equivalent aging and increased by 88% for 61 days of equivalent aging. The aerosol single-scattering albedo (SSA) of both fresh and aged aerosol increased with the increasing wavelength. The largest changes in SSA due to OFR aging were observed at the shortest of the three wavelengths (i.e., at 405 nm) where SSA increased by less than ~2.4% for 19 and 44 days of aging. These changes were due to a decrease in the absorption coefficients by ~45%, with the effect on SSA somewhat reduced by a concurrent decrease in the scattering coefficients by 20 to 25%. For 61 days of aging, we observed very little change in SSA, namely an increase of 0.31% that was caused a ~56% increase in the absorption coefficients that was more than balanced by a somewhat larger (~71%) increase in the scattering coefficients. These large increases in the absorption and scattering coefficients for aging at 7 V are at least qualitatively consistent with the large increase in the particle volume (~88%). Overall, aging shifted the absorption toward longer wavelengths and decreased the absorption Ångström exponents, which ranged from ~5 to 9. Complex refractive index retrieval yielded real and imaginary parts that increased and decreased, respectively, with the increasing wavelength. The 405 nm real parts first increased and then decreased and imaginary parts decreased during aging, with little change at other wavelengths.

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“…Human‐induced climate change has resulted in over 1.0°C of global warming to‐date, when compared with pre‐industrial levels (IPCC, 2021). The impacts of this warming trend on human and natural systems are already being felt around the world, in part through an increase in the likelihood of extreme weather events such as heatwaves (Ciavarella et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021). For example, the recent Siberian heatwave of summer 2020 has been shown to be at least 600 times more likely as a result of human‐induced climate change (Ciavarella et al., 2021), while the probability of the conditions occurring that led to the 2019/2020 Australian bushfires is estimated to have increased by at least 30% since 1900, due to anthropogenic climate change (van Oldenborgh et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Localized impacts and economic implications from high temperature disruption days under climate change

et al. 2022

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Most studies into the effects of climate change have headline results in the form of a global change in mean temperature. More useful for businesses and governments, however, are measures of the localized impact, and also of extremes rather than averages. We have addressed this by examining the change in frequency of exceeding a daily mean temperature threshold, defined as ‘disruption days’, as it is often this exceedance which has the most dramatic impacts on personal or economic behaviour. Our exceedance analysis tackles the resolution of climate change both geographically and temporally, the latter specifically to address the 5‐ to 20‐year time horizon which can be recognized in business planning. We apply bias correction with quantile mapping to meteorological reanalysis data from ECMWF ERA5 and output from CMIP5 climate model simulations. By determining the daily frequency at which a mean temperature threshold is exceeded in this bias‐corrected dataset, we can compare predicted and historic frequencies to estimate the change in the number of disruption days. Furthermore, by combining results from 18 different climate models, we can estimate the likelihood of more extreme events, taking into account model variations. This is useful for worst‐case scenario planning. Taking the city of Chicago as an example, the expected frequency of years with 40 or more disruption days above the 25°C threshold rises by a factor of four for a time period centred on 2040, compared with a period centred on 2000. Alternately, looking at the change in the number of days at a given likelihood, an example is Shenzhen, where the number of disruption days in a once‐per‐decade event exceeding the 25°C or 30°C threshold is expected to rise by a factor of four. In a future stage, superimposing these results onto maps of, for instance, GDP sensitivity or production days lost, will provide more accurate and targeted conclusions for future impacts of climate change. This method of quantifying costs on business‐relevant timescales will enable businesses and governments properly include risks associated with facilities, plan mitigating actions and make accurate provisions. It can also, for example, inform their disclosure of physical risks under the framework of the Task Force on Climate‐related Financial Disclosures. This approach is equally applicable to other weather‐related, localized phenomena likely to be impacted by climate change.

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Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence

Cited by 80 publications

References 27 publications

Health Risks to the Russian Population from Temperature Extremes at the Beginning of the XXI Century

Health Risks to the Russian Population from Temperature Extremes at the Beginning of the XXI Century

Optical Characterization of Fresh and Photochemically Aged Aerosols Emitted from Laboratory Siberian Peat Burning

Localized impacts and economic implications from high temperature disruption days under climate change

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