Projections of white and black older adults without living kin in the United States, 2015 to 2060

Abstract

Close kin provide many important functions as adults age, affecting health, financial well-being, and happiness. Those without kin report higher rates of loneliness and experience elevated risks of chronic illness and nursing facility placement. Historical racial differences and recent shifts in core demographic rates suggest that white and black older adults in the United States may have unequal availability of close kin and that this gap in availability will widen in the coming decades. Whereas prior work explores the changing composition and size of the childless population or those without spouses, here we consider the kinless population of older adults with no living close family members and how this burden is changing for different race and sex groups. Using demographic microsimulation and the United States Census Bureau's recent national projections of core demographic rates by race, we examine two definitions of kinlessness: those without a partner or living children, and those without a partner, children, siblings, or parents. Our results suggest dramatic growth in the size of the kinless population as well as increasing racial disparities in percentages kinless. These conclusions are driven by declines in marriage and are robust to different assumptions about the future trajectory of divorce rates or growth in nonmarital partnerships. Our findings draw attention to the potential expansion of older adult loneliness, which is increasingly considered a threat to population health, and the unequal burden kinlessness may place on black Americans.O lder adults without kin are some of the most disadvantaged and isolated members of society (1, 2), because close kin are vital sources of social support that affect social, economic, and physical well-being (3, 4). The availability of kin is repeatedly implicated in studies of healthy aging (5, 6), and lacking kin is among the social factors most positively associated with nursing facility placement and quality of care (7, 8). Loneliness appears to be increasing among older adults (9) and is more strongly associated with early mortality than smoking and excessive alcohol consumption (10). Because kin make up the dominant share of most Americans' close confidante networks (11), it is no surprise that loneliness is most prevalent among the never married, widowed, and divorced as well as the childless and those without partners (12, 13). Of course, not all close kin are in contact, geographically proximate, emotionally intimate, or willing or able to exchange resources, but the availability of kin is a necessary condition for their provision of such functions (14). For these reasons, it is important to examine the population dynamics of those who lack close kin (15). In the American kinship system (16), demographic events determine the availability of kin, with marriage and fertility producing kin and death and divorce reducing them. The clear links between demographic processes and kinship networks (17, 18) imply that ongoing demographic changes in American society ...

Measuring how countries adapt to societal aging

“…These findings are supported by the recent projections for declines in the presence of nearby kin in the United States, which represents a health risk and provides further evidence of the weakening of the capacity of the family to serve its traditional safety net function (8).…”

The Family Safety Net of Black and White Multigenerational Families

“…Race differences in rates of fertility, nuptiality, and mortality contribute to racial variation in the availability of kin (Seltzer and Bianchi 2013;Umberson et al 2017;Verdery and Margolis 2017). Blacks have higher levels of fertility and have their first child at younger ages than Whites (Martin et al 2015).…”

Views on the use of the term ‘elder orphans’: A qualitative study

“…Individuals who are kinless and ageing alone are increasingly reported in many countries (Verdery, Margolis, Zhou, Chai, & Rittirong, ; Verdery & Margolis, ). Kinlessness among older adults is noted to be associated with infertility, death of spouse and complicated family dynamics (estranged status) and other social determinants such as financial instability (Margolis & Verdery, ).…”