Projecting the Potential Distribution of Glossina morsitans (Diptera: Glossinidae) under Climate Change Using the MaxEnt Model

Zhou, Ruobing; Gao, Yuan; Chang, Nan; Gao, Tai; Ma, Delong; Li, Chao; Liu, Qiyong

doi:10.3390/biology10111150

Cited by 12 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Pangga et al 41 used the MaxEnt model to accurately predict the species distribution of Aspidiotus rigidus Reyne, whose main environmental variables were annual temperature variation and seasonality. In addition, before using MaxEnt to predict the distribution, we used the ENMeval package in R to optimize the model and selected a model combination with delta AICc equal to 0 because this tuning exercise can result in a model with a balanced goodness of fit 42 . Ultimately, the AUC values of the distribution data simulated by MaxEnt were all greater than 0.95, so our model was considered robust and sufficient to explain the distribution of N. californicus .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios

Chen

Jiang

Zhang

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Neoseiulus californicus is a predatory mite with a wide global distribution that can effectively control a variety of pest mites. In this study, MaxEnt was used to analyse the potential distribution of N. californicus in China and the BCC-CSM2-MR model was used to predict changes in the suitable areas for the mite from 2021 to 2100 under the scenarios of SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585. The results showed that (1) the average of area under curve value of the model was over 0.95, which demonstrated an excellent model accuracy. (2) Annual mean temperature (Bio1), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), and precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) were the main climatic variables that affected and controlled the potential distribution of N. californicus, with suitable ranges of 6.97–23.27 °C, 71.36–3924.8 mm, and 41.94–585.08 mm, respectively. (3) The suitable areas for N. californicus were mainly distributed in the southern half of China, with a total suitable area of 226.22 × 104 km2 in current. Under the future climate scenario, compared with the current scenario, lowly and moderately suitable areas of N. californicus increased, while highly suitable areas decreased. Therefore, it may be necessary to cultivate high-temperature resistant strains of N. californicus to adapt to future environmental changes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios

Chen

Jiang

Zhang

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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“…In phytology and biology, the geographical ranges of plants and animals have been shown to be affected by climate change [ 6 , 7 , 8 ]. In epidemiology and pathology, the future geographic expansion of vector species that carry vector-borne diseases (VBDs) has been evaluated [ 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 ], and proved the invasive and evolutionary adaptation of vectors to different ecological and environmental conditions [ 13 ]. The impact of non-climatic factors on VBDs has also been assessed [ 14 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Drives the Transmission and Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: An Ecological Perspective

Guo

Gao

et al. 2022

Biology

Self Cite

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Climate change affects ecosystems and human health in multiple dimensions. With the acceleration of climate change, climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose an increasing threat to public health. This paper summaries 10 publications on the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and human health; then it synthesizes the other existing literature to more broadly explain how climate change drives the transmission and spread of VBDs through an ecological perspective. We highlight the multi-dimensional nature of climate change, its interaction with other factors, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on transmission and spread of VBDs, specifically including: (1) the generally nonlinear relationship of local climate (temperature, precipitation and wind) and VBD transmission, with temperature especially exhibiting an n-shape relation; (2) the time-lagged effect of regional climate phenomena (the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation) on VBD transmission; (3) the u-shaped effect of extreme climate (heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts) on VBD spread; (4) how interactions between non-climatic (land use and human mobility) and climatic factors increase VBD transmission and spread; and (5) that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change is debatable, and its impact on VBDs remains uncertain. By exploring the influence of climate change and non-climatic factors on VBD transmission and spread, this paper provides scientific understanding and guidance for their effective prevention and control.

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“…The standardized eigenvectors of each variable were obtained (Table 1 ), and then Pearson correlation analysis was conducted on 28 environmental variables (Supplementary Table S1 ). If the correlation coefficient |r|≥ 0.8, the two variables were considered to be highly correlated, and only the environmental variables had larger eigenvector values 41 . Eleven environmental variables, including elevation, slope direction, slope, seasonal variation in temperature, annual precipitation, lighting, land use, NDVI, distance to roads, distance to rivers, and distance to residential sites, were finally screened for E. pseudosauteri species distribution prediction modeling (Table 2 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the potential suitable distribution area of Emeia pseudosauteri in Zhejiang Province based on the MaxEnt model

Wang

Zhu

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Human activities, including urbanization, industrialization, agricultural pollution, and land use, have contributed to the increased fragmentation of natural habitats and decreased biodiversity in Zhejiang Province as a result of socioeconomic development. Numerous studies have demonstrated that the protection of ecologically significant species can play a crucial role in restoring biodiversity. Emeia pseudosauteri is regarded as an excellent environmental indicator, umbrella and flagship species because of its unique ecological attributes and strong public appeal. Assessing and predicting the potential suitable distribution area of this species in Zhejiang Province can help in the widespread conservation of biodiversity. We used the MaxEnt ecological niche model to evaluate the habitat suitability of E. pseudosauteri in Zhejiang Province to understand the potential distribution pattern and environmental characteristics of suitable habitats for this species, and used the AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and TSS (true skill statistics) to evaluate the model performance. The results showed that the mean AUC value was 0.985, the standard deviation was 0.011, the TSS average value was 0.81, and the model prediction results were excellent. Among the 11 environmental variables used for modeling, temperature seasonality (Bio_4), altitude (Alt) and distance to rivers (Riv_dis) were the key variables affecting the distribution area of E. pseudosauteri, with contributions of 33.5%, 30% and 15.9%, respectively. Its main suitable distribution area is in southern Zhejiang Province and near rivers, at an altitude of 50–300 m, with a seasonal variation in temperature of 7.7–8 °C. Examples include the Ou River, Nanxi River, Wuxi River, and their tributary watersheds. This study can provide a theoretical basis for determining the scope of E. pseudosauteri habitat protection, population restoration, resource management and industrial development in local areas.

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Projecting the Potential Distribution of Glossina morsitans (Diptera: Glossinidae) under Climate Change Using the MaxEnt Model

Cited by 12 publications

References 31 publications

Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios

Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios

Climate Change Drives the Transmission and Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: An Ecological Perspective

Predicting the potential suitable distribution area of Emeia pseudosauteri in Zhejiang Province based on the MaxEnt model

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