Predictors of Exceptional Longevity: Effects of Early-Life and Midlife Conditions, and Familial Longevity

Abstract

Knowledge of strong predictors of mortality and longevity is very important for actuarial science and practice. Earlier studies found that parental characteristics as well as early-life conditions and midlife environment play a significant role in survival to advanced ages. However, little is known about the simultaneous effects of these three factors on longevity. This ongoing study attempts to fill this gap by comparing centenarians born in the United States in 1890–1891 with peers born in the same years who died at age 65. The records for centenarians and controls were taken from computerized family histories, which were then linked to 1900 and 1930 U.S. censuses. As a result of this linkage procedure, 765 records of confirmed centenarians and 783 records of controls were obtained. Analysis with multivariate logistic regression found the existence of both general and gender-specific predictors of human longevity. General predictors common for men and women are paternal and maternal longevity. Gender-specific predictors of male longevity are occupation as a farmer at age 40, Northeastern region of birth in the United States, and birth in the second half of year. A gender-specific predictor of female longevity is the availability of radio in the household according to the 1930 U.S. census. Given the importance of familial longevity as an independent predictor of survival to advanced ages, we conducted a comparative study of biological and nonbiological relatives of centenarians using a larger sample of 1,945 validated U.S. centenarians born in 1880–1895. We found that male gender of centenarian has a significant positive effect on survival of adult male relatives (brothers and fathers) but not female blood relatives. Life span of centenarian siblings-in-law is lower compared to life span of centenarian siblings and does not depend on centenarian gender. Wives of male centenarians (who share lifestyle and living conditions) have a significantly better survival compared to wives of centenarians’ brothers. This finding demonstrates an important role of shared familial environment and lifestyle in human longevity. The results of this study suggest that familial background, some early-life conditions and midlife characteristics play an important role in longevity.

Intergenerational transmission of longevity is not affected by other familial factors: Evidence from 16,905 Dutch families from Zeeland, 1812-1962

“…In this paper we set out to investigate whether the intergenerational transmission of longevity was affected by other familial factors than familial longevity. We revisit the question asked by Gavrilov & Gavrilova (2015) and You, Gi & Yi (2010) with extensive data on familial mortality that contains longitudinal information on familial resources. Using newly available demographic data, parental longevity, offspring survival, high infant mortality in the sibship, familial fertility history, and shared socioeconomic resources were associated with offspring survival for 16,905 disjoint families.…”

“…Barker, 1990;Elo & Preston, 1992). Moreover, individual factors that have been associated with longevity -such as parity (Tabatabaie et al, 2011;Westendorp & Kirkwood, 1998), age at last birth (Sun et al, 2015), social class (Gavrilov & Gavrilova, 2015;Temby & Smith, 2014), smoking, and drinking (Kerber et al, 2001;Sun et al, 2015;Temby & Smith, 2014) -are passed on from parents to children. Just like parental longevity, these resources can cluster within families and are transferred to future generations (Broström, Edvinsson & Engberg, 2018;Knigge, 2016;Morris et al, 2011;Sommerseth, 2018;.…”

“…parity, farming, social class, or smoking and drinking behavior (Gavrilov & Gavrilova, 2015;Kerber et al, 2001;Robine et al, 2003;Sun et al, 2015;Tabatabaie et al, 2011;Temby & Smith, 2014). These factors are often shared between parents and children and, as such, can correlate a family's chances to become long-lived (Cournil, Legay & Schächter, 2000;Gavrilov & Gavrilova, 2015;Matthijs, Van de Putte & Vlietinck, 2002;Montesanto et al, 2017;Temby & Smith, 2014;You, Gu & Yi, 2010). Currently, studies have found little evidence that social factors affected the association between parental longevity and offspring survival (Gavrilov & Gavrilova, 2015;You, Gu & Yi, 2010).…”

Stochastic Period and Cohort Effect State-Space Mortality Models Incorporating Demographic Factors via Probabilistic Robust Principal Components

“…First of all, with appropriate data it would be straightforward to conduct similar analysis for extended data set, as for gender and region specific disaggregation of mortality and demographic data with the inclusion of various population related factors such as cause-of-death Murray and Lopez (1997); (Girosi and King 2008) or more recently (Gaille and Sherris 2015), midlife conditions as in Gavrilov and Gavrilova (2015) or migration. Secondly, considering different distribution priori assumptions and introducing the methodology to handle more advanced patterns of missigness would benefit in better explanatory power and even more consistent interpretability.…”

Adverse Childhood Experiences among a Community of Resilient Centenarians and Seniors: Implications for a Chronic Disease Prevention Framework

“…26,27 With a history of significant longevity, the Loma Linda Blue Zone (LLBZ) community may provide a unique perspective for chronic disease prevention. Thus, the purpose of this research study was to obtain in-depth information from LLBZ centenarians and seniors about their childhood experiences and exposures and to provide insight for chronic disease prevention framework.…”