2009
DOI: 10.1071/wf08133
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Abstract: The probability of large-fire (≥1000 ha) ignition days, in the Sydney region, was examined using historical records. Relative influences of the ambient and drought components of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) on large fire ignition probability were explored using Bayesian logistic regression. The preferred models for two areas (Blue Mountains and Central Coast) were composed of the sum of FFDI (Drought Factor, DF = 1) (ambient component) and DF as predictors. Both drought and ambient weather positively af… Show more

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Cited by 128 publications
(110 citation statements)
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“…Fire danger is 'a general term used to express an assessment of both fixed and variable factors of the fire environment that determine the ease of ignition, rate of spread, difficulty of control, and fire impact; often expressed as an index' (FAO 2005 Keetch et al 1968). Of these, we found a very frequent use of FFMC (Cunningham and Martell 1973;Martell et al 1989;Vega-Garcia et al 1995;Wotton et al 2010;Lee et al 2012;Boulanger et al 2014;Li et al 2014;Beccari et al 2015), DC (Wotton et al 2003(Wotton et al , 2010Carvalho et al 2008;Drever et al 2009;Bedia et al 2014) and DMC (Martell et al 1987;Todd and Kourtz 1991;Wotton et al 2003;Magnussen and Taylor 2012), FWI (Haines et al 1983;Martell et al 1987;Vega-Garcia et al 1996;Carvalho et al 2010;Reineking et al 2010;Ager et al 2014;Beccari et al 2015;Papakosta and Straub 2016), ISI (Haines et al 1970(Haines et al , 1983Vega-Garcia et al 1995;Li et al 2014), FFDI (Bradstock et al 2009;Penman et al 2013;Plucinski 2014;Plucinski et al 2014), KBDI (Prestemon and Butry 2005) and ERC (Andrews et al 2003).…”
Section: Predictors For Short-term Studiesmentioning
confidence: 96%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Fire danger is 'a general term used to express an assessment of both fixed and variable factors of the fire environment that determine the ease of ignition, rate of spread, difficulty of control, and fire impact; often expressed as an index' (FAO 2005 Keetch et al 1968). Of these, we found a very frequent use of FFMC (Cunningham and Martell 1973;Martell et al 1989;Vega-Garcia et al 1995;Wotton et al 2010;Lee et al 2012;Boulanger et al 2014;Li et al 2014;Beccari et al 2015), DC (Wotton et al 2003(Wotton et al , 2010Carvalho et al 2008;Drever et al 2009;Bedia et al 2014) and DMC (Martell et al 1987;Todd and Kourtz 1991;Wotton et al 2003;Magnussen and Taylor 2012), FWI (Haines et al 1983;Martell et al 1987;Vega-Garcia et al 1996;Carvalho et al 2010;Reineking et al 2010;Ager et al 2014;Beccari et al 2015;Papakosta and Straub 2016), ISI (Haines et al 1970(Haines et al , 1983Vega-Garcia et al 1995;Li et al 2014), FFDI (Bradstock et al 2009;Penman et al 2013;Plucinski 2014;Plucinski et al 2014), KBDI (Prestemon and Butry 2005) and ERC (Andrews et al 2003).…”
Section: Predictors For Short-term Studiesmentioning
confidence: 96%
“…Improved detection, preparedness, pre-attack planning and suppression predominate in short-term models (Haines et al 1970;Martell et al 1989;Bradstock et al 2009;Wotton et al 2010;Papakosta and Straub 2016), whereas longterm models are usually built for fire prevention, landscape fuel treatments, forest management, land-use planning and civil protection Koutsias et al 2010;Gralewicz et al 2012a;Oliveira et al 2012;Abt et al 2015).…”
Section: Temporal Span For Modellingmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…1) is characterised by large areas of urban development surrounded by expanses of natural bushland. The dry sclerophyll eucalypt forests covering much of this area are highly flammable and characterised by rapid fuel accumulation (Fox et al 1979;Morrison et al 1996), which accompanied with periodic conditions of drought and extreme fire weather, make this region prone to recurrent large wildfires (Bradstock et al 2009).…”
Section: Study Areamentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The change in the mean size of fires was achieved by changing the number of time-steps for which they burnt (40 for small fires, 240 for large ones). In real landscapes, fires have a variety of sizes, with most being small and a few being large (Boer et al 2008;Bradstock et al 2009;Ricotta et al 2001). To test whether this influences leverage, …”
Section: Unplanned Fire Extentmentioning
confidence: 99%