Prediction of bluetongue vector distribution in Europe and north Africa using satellite imagery

Tatem, Andrew J.; Baylis, Matthew; Mellor, P. S.; Purse, Bethan V.; Capela, Rúben A.; Pena, I.; Rogers, David J.

doi:10.1016/j.vetmic.2003.08.009

Cited by 99 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The best model, which combined the minimum LST and minimum NDVI as predictors of C. imicola abundance, accounted for nearly 67% of variance. In the most recent predictive models of C. imicola abundance and distribution which have been developed in relation to BTV rather than AHSV, altitude, NDVI, middle infra-red reflectance, LST and air temperature have all been included [120]. These authors then used discriminant analysis to identify the best models from 40 temporally Fourier-processed 1 km spatial resolution remotely-sensed variables based on the above.…”

Section: Prediction Of Ahs Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

African horse sickness

2004

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-African horse sickness virus (AHSV) causes a non-contagious, infectious insect-borne disease of equids and is endemic in many areas of sub-Saharan Africa and possibly Yemen in the Arabian Peninsula. However, periodically the virus makes excursions beyond its endemic areas and has at times extended as far as India and Pakistan in the east and Spain and Portugal in the west. The vectors are certain species of Culicoides biting midge the most important of which is the AfroAsiatic species C. imicola. This paper describes the effects that AHSV has on its equid hosts, aspects of its epidemiology, and present and future prospects for control. The distribution of AHSV seems to be governed by a number of factors including the efficiency of control measures, the presence or absence of a long term vertebrate reservoir and, most importantly, the prevalence and seasonal incidence of the major vector which is controlled by climate. However, with the advent of climatechange the major vector, C. imicola, has now significantly extended its range northwards to include much of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece and has even been recorded from southern Switzerland. Furthermore, in many of these new locations the insect is present and active throughout the entire year. With the related bluetongue virus, which utilises the same vector species of Culicoides this has, since 1998, precipitated the worst outbreaks of bluetongue disease ever recorded with the virus extending further north in Europe than ever before and apparently becoming endemic in that continent. The prospects for similar changes in the epidemiology and distribution of AHSV are discussed.

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Section: Prediction Of Ahs Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

African horse sickness

2004

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“…Recent BTV outbreaks in the Balkans are thought to have arrived from Asian Turkey and may be vectored by local vector species (Purse et al, 2006). Model predictions suggest a widespread distribution of BTV across the Mediterranean basin and into central Europe as far as southern Germany and Austria (Tatem et al, 2003;Wittmann et al, 2001). Climate was considered to be the main limiting factor for spread of the disease into Northern Europe.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The phenology and population dynamics of Culicoides spp. in different ecosystems in The Netherlands

Takken

Verhulst

Scholte

et al. 2008

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

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“…These methods have been developed for different vectorborne diseases [8,41,42] and take benefit from the area-wide availability of the data and their repetitiveness over time. The accuracy of these predictions on the presence/absence or abundance of C. imicola is variable (from R 2 = 0.53 [3,4] to kappa = 0.91 [46]): understandably, they are more accurate in the regions from which entomological training data sets come from. Predictions from the only model taking into account Corsican entomological data are in good agreement with the observed vector distribution at the low spatial resolution of the study 2 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of high spatial resolution satellite imagery to characterize landscapes at risk for bluetongue

et al. 2007

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-The recent and rapid spread in the Mediterranean Basin of bluetongue, a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by some species of Culicoides (biting midges), highlights the necessity of determining the conditions of its emergence. This study uses high spatial resolution satellite imagery and methods from landscape ecology science to identify environmental parameters related to bluetongue occurrence in Corsica, a French Mediterranean island where the disease occurred for the first time in 2000. A set of environmental variables recorded in the neighborhood of 80 sheep farms were related to case occurrence through a logistic regression model computed within three subsequent buffer distances of 0.5, 1 and 2 km. The results reveal the role of landscape metrics, particularly those characterizing land-use units such as prairies and woodlands, as well as farm type, latitude and sunshine to explain the presence of bluetongue. Internal and external validation both indicate that the best results are obtained with the 1 km buffer size model (area under Receiver Operating Characteristic curve = 0.9 for internal validation and 0.81 for external validation). The results show that high spatial resolution remote sensing (i.e. 10 m pixels) and landscape ecology approaches contribute to improving the understanding of bluetongue epidemiology.epidemiology / bluetongue / remote sensing / geographic information systems / landscape ecology

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Prediction of bluetongue vector distribution in Europe and north Africa using satellite imagery

Cited by 99 publications

References 27 publications

African horse sickness

African horse sickness

The phenology and population dynamics of Culicoides spp. in different ecosystems in The Netherlands

Use of high spatial resolution satellite imagery to characterize landscapes at risk for bluetongue

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