Prediction model for knee osteoarthritis incidence, including clinical, genetic and biochemical risk factors

Abstract

Easy obtainable 'Questionnaire' variables, genetic markers, OA at other joint sites and biochemical markers add only modestly to the prediction of KOA incidence using age, gender and BMI in an elderly population. Doubtful minor radiographic degenerative features in the knee, however, are a very strong predictor of future KOA. This is an important finding, as many radiologists do not report minor degenerative changes in the knee.

Predictive value of semi-quantitative MRI-based scoring systems for future knee replacement: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

“…BLOKS and WORMS scoring systems were presented with their three separate scores for the cartilage, bone marrow and meniscus. As mentioned above, following previous studies [18][19][20], the risk of (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11) are also similarly used in Tables 3, 4 and 5 for further analysis subsequent KR was calculated per every one unit increase in the average scores of all locations (Table 1).…”

“…In fact, it is markedly important to note that the final decision for KR is based on the level of physical activity and symptoms [2,5,[8][9][10]. In addition to the BLOKS and WORMS scores for the cartilage, bone marrow or meniscus, we adjusted our models for six additional covariates that are known risk factors for OA progression [7]. For this purpose, we followed Vittinghoff et al to achieve fully adjusted, though still precise HRs [25].…”

“…Adjustments were performed for well-known (HR-1) and proposed predictors (HR-2) of KR in OA. Choices of confounders were made according to the prediction models proposed by Kerkhof et al and in line with other similar reports [5][6][7]22]. The first model (HR-1) includes adjustments for age, gender and BMI.…”

“…The chronic and often progressive clinical course of knee OA emphasizes the role for possible preventive strategies in early detection and secondary prevention of endstage joint destruction requiring KR. Recent studies have focused on extracting the predictors of the development and progression of OA for accurate outcome prediction of painful knee OA with possible ensuing joint replacement [4,[7][8][9]. Several well-defined cohorts have been initiated for this purpose, such as osteoarthritis initiatives (OAIs), the Multicentric Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) and Framingham Osteoarthritis Study [10][11][12][13].…”

Optimal primary care management of clinical osteoarthritis and joint pain in older people: a mixed-methods programme of systematic reviews, observational and qualitative studies, and randomised controlled trials

“…Previous studies have developed prediction models for OA, but most were developed to predict the onset of OA 45,46 or the outcome of a specific treatment, 47,48 or were focused on a specific joint -usually the knee. [49][50][51][52] Most people with OA have multiple joint pains [53][54][55] and our aim was to develop prognostic models and estimate the cost-effectiveness of offering core treatments for OA regardless of the site of pain.…”