Predicting the potential for spread of emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) in Great Britain: What can we learn from other affected areas?

Abstract

Emerald ash borer (EAB) is thought to have arrived in North America and European Russia at least 10 years prior to detection. Despite heightened awareness that EAB could invade Great Britain (GB), detection in the early stages of establishment is difficult, and initial symptoms might be mistaken for Chalara ash dieback. Our results suggest that if partial resistance to EAB in Fraxinus excelsior does not significantly dampen EAB population dynamics, then EAB could establish and spread across large parts of southern England within a relatively short time period; however, further northern spread may be limited by the relatively cool climate.

Low Heat Availability Could Limit the Potential Spread of the Emerald Ash Borer to Northern Europe (Prognosis Based on Growing Degree Days per Year)

“…Our data indicate that low heat availability could potentially limit the future spread of A. planipennis in Northern Europe. This conclusion is in accordance the conclusion by Webb et al for the British Isles [19]. These authors calculated that northern half of the British Isles is unlikely to provide a suitable environment for A. planipennis to establish, because the GDD 10 threshold of the start of the emergence of adults (230 • GDD 10 accumulated from 1 January) and the threshold of the peak of adult emergence (500 • GDD 10 ) are not met within a calendar year or are met in autumn [19].…”

“…It was hypothesized that low heat availability could limit the spread of A. planipennis to the north [18]. The only prognosis of A. planipennis potential range taking into account heat availability was recently made for Great Britain [19].…”

An integrative phenology and climatic suitability model for emerald ash borer

“…Phenological maps may increase the effectiveness of eradication or management of invasive insect species because knowing where and when to expect a specific life stage may increase the likelihood of pest detection ( 1 – 4 ) and improve the timing of control measures against the susceptible life stage ( 5 , 6 ). Likewise, maps of establishment risk can help decision-makers know whether to invest in pre-arrival strategies, such as surveillance and attaining approval for tree removal, chemical treatments, and biological control, to mitigate against the forest pest’s colonization and establishment ( 7 , 8 ).…”

“…Ash declines caused by EAB have had devastating impacts on ecosystem processes, ecological services, sociocultural practices, and local and regional economies ( 15 , 22 – 25 ). These impacts will likely grow if EAB continues its expansion into new areas such as the Pacific Coast of the United States ( 26 ) and Central and Western Europe ( 7 , 12 , 27 , 28 ). Spatial forecasts of phenology and establishment risk are urgently needed for managing infestations and slowing the spread of invasive EAB populations ( 3 , 7 , 12 ).…”

“…These impacts will likely grow if EAB continues its expansion into new areas such as the Pacific Coast of the United States ( 26 ) and Central and Western Europe ( 7 , 12 , 27 , 28 ). Spatial forecasts of phenology and establishment risk are urgently needed for managing infestations and slowing the spread of invasive EAB populations ( 3 , 7 , 12 ).…”