Predicting the impacts of climate change, soils and vegetation types on the geographic distribution of Polyporus umbellatus in China

Guo, Yuxue; Li, Xiaoqiong; Zhao, Zefang; Nawaz, Zain

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.465

Cited by 87 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Several studies have predicted how climate change affects the distribution of species in different regions and ecosystems around the world (Alamgir et al ; Ashraf et al ; Newbold ; Morin et al ; Guo et al ,, ). The Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest is one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extinction threat to neglected Plinia edulis exacerbated by climate change, yet likely mitigated by conservation through sustainable use

et al. 2020

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Forecasting the impacts of climate change on species distribution has several implications for conservation. Plinia edulis is a rare and threatened tree species from Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest. In this study, we assessed the impact of global climate change on the distribution of P. edulis. Additionally, we evaluated the efficacy of the Brazilian protected network to conserve this species. Ecological niche models were built using the maximum entropy method based on occurrence records and environmental predictors. Models predicted a reduction of climatically suitable areas for P. edulis in all evaluated scenarios in the coming years. Furthermore, we observed that Brazilian protected areas (PAs) are ineffective to conserve this species. Given the fact that P. edulis is a promising tree species rarely found within Brazilian PAs and threatened by global climate change, we strongly recommend the cultivation of this multipurpose species in agroforestry systems, landscaping and homegardens in order to promote its conservation through sustainable use.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extinction threat to neglected Plinia edulis exacerbated by climate change, yet likely mitigated by conservation through sustainable use

et al. 2020

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“…Model evaluation is a pivotal step to assess the accuracy of ecological niche models and consequently its resulting predictions (Peterson et al, 2011). MaxEnt often present high performance when compared to other algorithms (Elith et al, 2006;Guo, Li, Zhao, & Nawaz, 2019). Models run with different settings tend to perform better when compared to those with default settings.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the habitat suitability of Andira humilis Mart. ex Benth. (Fabaceae) as a means to detect its associated galling species in Brazil

Lima

Calado

2020

Acta Sci. Biol. Sci.

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Host plant species have very specific interconnection with galling species. Here, we estimate the potential distribution of the host plant species Andira humilis Mart. ex Benth. (Fabaceae) to consequently locate the potential distribution ranges of its galling species Lopesia andirae Garcia, Lima, Calado, and Guimarães (2017) based on ecological requirements. The ecological niche model was built using Maxent v.3.4.1k, an algorithm that estimates species’ distributions. We found suitable habitats for L. andirae encompassing areas of the Cerrado, Caatinga and Atlantic Forest. Annual mean temperature (70.2%) and temperature annual range (13.9%) were the most critical factors shaping A. humilis and necessarily L. andirae. Our results can guide taxonomists and ecologists regarding the delineation of sampling areas as well as conservation strategies for this ecological interaction.

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“…The bioclimatic variables we used have substantial biological significance compared with single temperature or rainfall data and are collected from the most widely used dataset in the prediction of species potential distribution [57,58]. Although local factors (such as geographic location, soil, and topography) are sometimes also considered as important factors for maintaining botanic growth on a local scale, we assumed that bioclimate is the crucial driver of physiological processes related to species survival, because other factors are highly inconsistent and unavailable on large time scales [59,60]. Meanwhile, fully quantifying bioclimatic factors is difficult, and the obstacles of assessing anthropogenic influence would complicate the study.…”

Section: The Rationality Of the Model And The Limitations Of The Predmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-Pessimistic Predictions of the Distributions and Suitability of Metasequoia glyptostroboides under Climate Change Using a Random Forest Model

Zhang

Wei

Zhang

et al. 2020

Forests

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Metasequoia glyptostroboides Hu & W. C. Cheng, which is a remarkable rare relict plant, has gradually been reduced to its current narrow range due to climate change. Understanding the comprehensive distribution of M. glyptostroboides under climate change on a large spatio-temporal scale is of great significance for determining its forest adaptation. In this study, based on 394 occurrence data and 10 bioclimatic variables, the global potential distribution of M. glyptostroboides under eight different climate scenarios (i.e., the past three, the current one, and the next four) from the Quaternary glacial to the future was simulated by a random forest model built with the biomod2 package. The key bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of M. glyptostroboides are BIO2 (mean diurnal range), BIO1 (annual mean temperature), BIO9 (mean temperature of driest quarter), BIO6 (min temperature of coldest month), and BIO18 (precipitation of warmest quarter). The result indicates that the temperature affects the potential distribution of M. glyptostroboides more than the precipitation. A visualization of the results revealed that the current relatively suitable habitats of M. glyptostroboides are mainly distributed in East Asia and Western Europe, with a total area of approximately 6.857 × 10 6 km 2 . With the intensification of global warming in the future, the potential distribution and the suitability of M. glyptostroboides have a relatively non-pessimistic trend. Whether under the mild (RCP4.5) and higher (RCP8.5) emission scenarios, the total area of suitable habitats will be wider than it is now by the 2070s, and the habitat suitability will increase to varying degrees within a wide spatial range. After speculating on the potential distribution of M. glyptostroboides in the past, the glacial refugia of M. glyptostroboides were inferred, and projections regarding the future conditions of these places are expected to be optimistic. In order to better protect the species, the locations of its priority protected areas and key protected areas, mainly in Western Europe and East Asia, were further identified. Our results will provide theoretical reference for the long-term management of M. glyptostroboides, and can be used as background information for the restoration of other endangered species in the future.

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Predicting the impacts of climate change, soils and vegetation types on the geographic distribution of Polyporus umbellatus in China

Cited by 87 publications

References 40 publications

Extinction threat to neglected Plinia edulis exacerbated by climate change, yet likely mitigated by conservation through sustainable use

Extinction threat to neglected Plinia edulis exacerbated by climate change, yet likely mitigated by conservation through sustainable use

Mapping the habitat suitability of Andira humilis Mart. ex Benth. (Fabaceae) as a means to detect its associated galling species in Brazil

Non-Pessimistic Predictions of the Distributions and Suitability of Metasequoia glyptostroboides under Climate Change Using a Random Forest Model

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