Predicting the criminal antecedents of a stranger rapist from his offence behaviour

Davies, Anne; Wittebrood, Karin; Jackson, Joan L.

doi:10.1016/s1355-0306(97)72169-5

Cited by 87 publications

(123 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Logistic and multiple regression approaches to profiling predictions, although commonly focused on fewer crime scene variables than SSAs in the prediction of offender characteristics, are also subject to similar operational concerns around utility due to the often narrow focus of the predictive models (Davies et al, 1998;Harry et al, 1993). As the current study has shown, the interaction between coefficients and variables (especially those not considered in the regression equation) can have significant impact on the predictive relationships between predictors and the criterion.…”

Section: Unprofilable?mentioning

confidence: 88%

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When is profiling possible? Offense planning and aggression as moderators in predicting offender age from victim age in stranger rape

Goodwill

Alison

2007

Behavioral Sci & The Law

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Debate continues with regard to the possibility of inferring an offender's characteristic features from crime scene details (the process of so-called "offender profiling"). We argue that psychology generally has benefited from appreciating context in predicting behavior. In the same way, profiling would benefit from an appreciation of context in predicting characteristics. This "reverse" process is contingent on various "if...then" relationships. As one example, this paper demonstrates how profiling offender age from victim age is contingent on (i) the level of planning and (ii) the level of aggression displayed during the offense. Eighty-five stranger rape case records formed the data set. Moderated regression analysis revealed that victim age is a significant predictor of offender age only in cases where the offender has (i) shown evidence of planning the attack and/or (ii) acts in a gratuitously aggressive manner. The theoretical bases for these findings may lie in the extent to which offenders disparately plan and target victims and how extreme aggressiveness in stranger rapes may relate to a near-peer proxy for an offender's anger. The implications of the results for the processes and methods involved in offender profiling suggest that certain crime scene factors can have differential moderating effects on predictive outcomes.

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Section: Unprofilable?mentioning

confidence: 88%

“…However, as indicated, research has clearly demonstrated that certain conditions, such as offense planning and organization (Davies, Wittebrood, & Jackson, 1998;Kuznetsov et al, 1992) and aggressiveness (Guay, Ouimet, & Proulx, 2004;Harry et al, 1993) moderate this relationship.…”

Section: Victim-offender Age Relationshipmentioning

confidence: 97%

When is profiling possible? Offense planning and aggression as moderators in predicting offender age from victim age in stranger rape

Goodwill

Alison

2007

Behavioral Sci & The Law

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“…As a result, differences may be due in part to differences in the victim-offender relationship rather than due to duration of offending career. Examining only stranger rapists, Davies, Wittebrood, and Jackson (1997) found that rapists who took steps to avoid leaving semen at the crime scene were almost four times as likely to have previous convictions for sexual offenses, compared with those who did not. However, they were also three times as likely to have convictions for robbery, suggesting that this apparent "expertise" in forensic awareness may not stem from an expertise specific to rape and sexual assault but perhaps from a more general criminal expertise.…”

Section: Evidence For Expert/novice Differences From the Offending Bementioning

confidence: 99%

Experts in rape: Evaluating the evidence for a novice-to-expert continuum in the offense behavior and cognition of sexual offenders

Ciardha

2015

Aggression and Violent Behavior

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Despite being over 15 years old researchers have been slow to adopt the competency or expertise perspective advocated by Ward (1999) as a complimentary viewpoint to the dominant deficit model of sexual offending. A growing body of research on the behavioral and cognitive impact of expertise suggests that it is timely to revisit the question of whether individuals can become expert at rape. This review summarizes the key points in Ward's theory and evaluates the scant research that could lend it support. The expertise perspective is a fertile area for future research and may provide a mechanism for explaining the relationship between explicit and implicit measures of distorted cognition. The review makes suggestions for future research and appraises the clinical implications of considering sexual aggressors as novices or experts.

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“…As has been the practice in past studies (Davies, Wittebrood, & Jackson, 1998;Grubin, Kelly, & Brunsdon, 2001;Salfati & Canter, 1999), frequent and infrequent victim behaviours were removed from the data set. Victim behaviours that occurred in less than 10% of cases were removed.…”

Section: Victim Behavioural Themesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating context in linking crimes: an exploratory study of situational similarity and if‐then contingencies

Woodhams

Hollin

Bull

2008

Journal Invest Psychology

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Predicting the criminal antecedents of a stranger rapist from his offence behaviour

Cited by 87 publications

References 13 publications

When is profiling possible? Offense planning and aggression as moderators in predicting offender age from victim age in stranger rape

When is profiling possible? Offense planning and aggression as moderators in predicting offender age from victim age in stranger rape

Experts in rape: Evaluating the evidence for a novice-to-expert continuum in the offense behavior and cognition of sexual offenders

Incorporating context in linking crimes: an exploratory study of situational similarity and if‐then contingencies

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