Predicting events of varying probability: uncertainty investigated by fMRI

Abstract

Many everyday life predictions rely on the experience and memory of event frequencies, i.e., natural samplings. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate the neural substrates of prediction under varying uncertainty based on a natural sampling approach. The study focused particularly on a comparison with other types of externally attributed uncertainty, such as guessing, and on the frontomedian cortex, which is known to be engaged in many types of decisions under uncertainty. On the basis of preceding stimulus cues, participants predicted events that occurred with probabilities ranging from p ϭ 0.6 to p ϭ 1.0. In contrast to certain predictions in a control task, predictions under uncertainty elicited activations within a posterior frontomedian area (mesial BA 8) and within a set of subcortical areas which are known to subserve dopaminergic modulations. The parametric analysis revealed that activation within the mesial BA 8 significantly increased with increasing uncertainty. A comparison with other types of uncertainty indicates that frontomedian correlates of frequency-based prediction appear to be comparable with those induced in long-term stimulus-response adaptation processes such as hypothesis testing, in contrast to those engaged in short-term error processing such as guessing.

Internally generated and directly cued task sets: an investigation with fMRI

“…This is further corroborated by studies investigating the internal generation of synonyms (Nyberg et al, 2003), uncertainty in decision making (Volz, Schubotz, & von Cramon, 2003) as well as during rule application (Goel & Dolan, 2000), serial event prediction in increasingly complex stimulus trains (Schubotz & von Cramon, 2002), and response competition (Ullsperger and von Cramon, 2004). …”

“…On the lateral prefrontal cortex, the coordinate of the mid-MFG and the coordinate of the FPFC were chosen because it has been argued by several authors that these areas are important for the working memory related integration of information or processes called "branching", respectively (D'Esposito, Postle, Ballard, & Lease, 1999;Fletcher & Henson, 2001;Koechlin, Basso, Pietrini, Panzer, & Grafman, 1999). On the medial side, BA 8 has been argued to be important for uncertainty in decision making (see, e.g., Volz, Schubotz, & von Cramon 2003). The more posteriorly situated ROIs on the lateral and medial PFC, i.e.…”

Cognitive humor processing: Different logical mechanisms in nonverbal cartoons—an fMRI study

“…The RCZ is involved in unsuccessful humor processing or the processing of pictures containing an irresolvable incongruity: This activation might reflect conflict monitoring as described in several studies (see Botvinick, Cohen, & Carter, 2004, for a review) or increasing uncertainty (Volz, Schubotz, & von Cramon, 2003). Activation near our peak is associated with error detection or response competition (Ullsperger & von Cramon, 2001).…”

CBT reduces CBF: cognitive‐behavioral therapy reduces cerebral blood flow in fear‐relevant brain regions in spider phobia

“…fMRI studies have shown that activation in BA 8 occurs when subjects experience uncertainty (Volz et al. 2003, 2004; Suzuki et al. 2015), which is comparable to the lasting state of anxious apprehension that occurs while anticipating an unpredictable threat, and is similar to the situation in this study with spider‐phobic patients.…”