Predicting a Solar Cycle Before its Onset Using a Flux Transport Dynamo Model

Abstract

AbstractWe begin with a review of the predictions for cycle 24 before its onset. After summarizing the basics of the flux transport dynamo model, we discuss how this model had been used to make a successful prediction of cycle 24, on the assumption that the irregularities of the solar cycle arise due to the fluctuations in the Babcock–Leighton mechanism. We point out that fluctuations in the meridional circulation can be another cause of irregularities in the cycle.