Predictability of Sri Lankan rainfall based on ENSO

Zubair, Lareef; Siriwardhana, Manjula; Chandimala, Janaki; Yahiya, Zeenas

doi:10.1002/joc.1514

Cited by 54 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Hence, a significant number of attempts have been made to understand and quantify the effect of climate parameters such as ENSO and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) on Sri Lanka's present climate (e.g., Zubair et al 2008;Pathirana et al 2007;Zubair and Ropelewski 2006;Suppiah 1996). Some of these attempts (e.g., Zubair et al 2008) propose short and medium term rainfall predictions based on ENSO and SST. Tools for predicting annual coconut production (Peiris et al 2008) and seasonal water availability within the Mahaweli scheme (Zubair 2003) make use of such short and medium term rainfall predictions.…”

Section: Climate Change Adaptation and Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

IWMI Research Report 135

Eriyagama¹,

Smakhtin²,

Chandrapala³

et al. 2010

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The publications in this series cover a wide range of subjects-from computer modeling to experience with water user associations-and vary in content from directly applicable research to more basic studies, on which applied work ultimately depends. Some research reports are narrowly focused, analytical and detailed empirical studies; others are wide-ranging and synthetic overviews of generic problems.Although most of the reports are published by IWMI staff and their collaborators, we welcome contributions from others. Each report is reviewed internally by IWMI staff, and by external reviewers. The reports are published and distributed both in hard copy and electronically (www.iwmi.org) and where possible all data and analyses will be available as separate downloadable files. Reports may be copied freely and cited with due acknowledgment. About IWMIIWMI's mission is to improve the management of land and water resources for food, livelihoods and the environment. In serving this mission, IWMI concentrates on the integration of policies, technologies and management systems to achieve workable solutions to real problems-practical, relevant results in the field of irrigation and water and land resources.

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Section: Climate Change Adaptation and Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

IWMI Research Report 135

Eriyagama¹,

Smakhtin²,

Chandrapala³

et al. 2010

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“…During an El Niño event, when the Eastern Pacific is anomalously warm, there is a weakening of the Walker circulation, with subsidence in the Western Pacific that extends to the central Indian Ocean region in the boreal summer [12]. This leads to a reduction of rainfall over Sri Lanka from January to March and July to August [9]. During the October-December period, the Walker cell in the Indian Ocean moves east, helping to strengthen the NE Monsoon, and increasing rainfall over Sri Lanka [2,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The IO monsoon system is well known to be significantly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO's influence on Sri Lankan temperature, rainfall and streamflow is well established [6][7][8][9][10][11]. During an El Niño event, when the Eastern Pacific is anomalously warm, there is a weakening of the Walker circulation, with subsidence in the Western Pacific that extends to the central Indian Ocean region in the boreal summer [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

Burt

Weerasinghe

2014

Climate

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Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period . The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana), where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal. OPEN ACCESSClimate 2014, 2 243

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“…Also, orographic precipitation is activated in the period from March to April and October to November because the island is located in the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) [32,33]. The Mahaweli River flows from the wet and intermediate zones to the dry zone, which covers about 10,300 km 2 in the basin area [7].…”

Section: Climate Scientific Observations and Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Farmers reveal that they have encountered extensive losses of their paddy harvest over the last 10 years due to increased air temperature and extended drought periods in the maha and yala harvesting periods. Consequently, these effects induce an increase in surface temperature [33,65], which causes deterioration of harvest in paddy cultivation [66]. According to Matthews et al [67], the increase of seasonal average temperature reduces the paddy harvest.…”

Section: Impacts Of Seasonal and Temporal Climate Change On Paddy Culmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Resource Management in Dry Zonal Paddy Cultivation in Mahaweli River Basin, Sri Lanka: An Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Climate Change Impacts and Traditional Knowledge

Withanachchi

Köpke

Withanachchi

et al. 2014

Climate

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Lack of attention to spatial and temporal cross-scale dynamics and effects could be understood as one of the lacunas in scholarship on river basin management. Within the water-climate-food-energy nexus, an integrated and inclusive approach that recognizes traditional knowledge about and experiences of climate change and water resource management can provide crucial assistance in confronting problems in megaprojects and multipurpose river basin management projects. The Mahaweli Development Program (MDP), a megaproject and multipurpose river basin management project, is demonstrating substantial failures with regards to the spatial and temporal impacts of climate change and socioeconomic demands for water allocation and distribution for paddy cultivation in the dry zone area, which was one of the driving goals of the project at the initial stage. This interdisciplinary study explores how spatial and temporal climatic changes and uncertainty OPEN ACCESSClimate 2014, 2 330 in weather conditions impact paddy cultivation in dry zonal areas with competing stakeholders' interest in the Mahaweli River Basin. In the framework of embedded design in the mixed methods research approach, qualitative data is the primary source while quantitative analyses are used as supportive data. The key findings from the research analysis are as follows: close and in-depth consideration of spatial and temporal changes in climate systems and paddy farmers' socioeconomic demands altered by seasonal changes are important factors. These factors should be considered in the future modification of water allocation, application of distribution technologies, and decision-making with regards to water resource management in the dry zonal paddy cultivation of Sri Lanka.

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Predictability of Sri Lankan rainfall based on ENSO

Cited by 54 publications

References 34 publications

IWMI Research Report 135

IWMI Research Report 135

Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

Water Resource Management in Dry Zonal Paddy Cultivation in Mahaweli River Basin, Sri Lanka: An Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Climate Change Impacts and Traditional Knowledge

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