Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

Abstract

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981–2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011–2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Prediction of current and future potential distributions of theEucalyptuspestLeptocybe invasa(Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) in China using the CLIMEX model

“…Several models are now available to predict species distributions. The CLIMEX model, specifically, has been used to predict distributions of fruit flies, aphids, moths,and weevils . The scale and speed of invasion of L. invasa globally (from its unofficial finding in 2000 in Eucalyptus in the Middle East to its current distribution in Eucalyptus on all continents where Eucalyptus is grown) indicate its great ecological plasticity and capacity to continue spreading, therefore an evaluation of species–environment relationships and methods to predict current and future invasions in China was undertaken.…”

“…The EI ranges from 0, indicating the worst climatic suitability for long‐term survival of a species, to 100, indicating the best climatic suitability for long‐term survival for a species . Although an EI value of 100 is unlikely, in general EIs under 100 can represent climatic conditions that are suitable for a species' habitation and survival, and they will vary according to the biological characteristics of the species . For additional details on the CLIMEX model, see Kriticos et al…”

“…Many studies have shown that species distribution models can be used to project the potential geographical distributions of species; these models include ANUCLIM/BIOCLIM, CLIMATE, CLIMEX, DOMAIN, GARP, HABITAT, and MaxEnt . One of these models, CLIMEX, requires a combination of biological characteristics and geographical distribution information of a species to predict the suitability of habitats in terms of climate; future climate data can be sorted according to the corresponding format for the analysis of the habitat and potential distribution . The CLIMEX model is now widely used to predict suitable habitats for bacteria, fungi, insects, and plants …”

Evidence of climate change impacts on the iconicWelwitschia mirabilisin the Namib Desert

“…Variations in the density of species, 37 range shifts, and extinction events have been documented at local and global level (Cristofari et al, 2018;38 Parmesan and Yohe, 2003;Walther et al, 2002). Furthermore, changes in species diversity, ecosystem 39 functioning, and service provision are expected for the future as a consequence of additional pressures on 40 natural populations (Ge et al, 2015; e.g. Hole et al, 2009;Moritz and Agudo, 2013).…”

Identification of Novel ARSB Genes Necessary for p-Benzoquinone Biosynthesis in the Larval Oral Secretion Participating in External Immune Defense in the Red Palm Weevil

“…The red palm weevil (RPW), Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is native to India and is the most notorious palm trunk-boring pest worldwide [27]. In China, RPW, as an invasive pest, has killed approximately 20,000 coconut trees, with an infestation area over 10,000 km 2 , and presents serious threats to the green ecological safety of coastal areas [28,29]. Although the effective biocontrol of RPW by pathogenic microbes has been validated under laboratory conditions [30,31], successful colonization by this species is partly due to strong individual immunity against exogenous substances [4].…”