2022
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-04369-3
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Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns

Abstract: The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (FAW), first invaded Africa in 2016 and has since become established in many areas across the continent where it poses a serious threat to food and nutrition security. We re-parameterized the existing CLIMEX model to assess the FAW global invasion threat, emphasizing the risk of transient and permanent population establishment in Africa under current and projected future climates, considering irrigation patterns. FAW can establish itself in almost all countries in easte… Show more

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Cited by 66 publications
(56 citation statements)
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“…The potential distribution of FAW has been modelled using a variety of methods (Fig. 3A and 3B) (du Plessis et al 2018;Early et al 2018;Timilsena et al 2022). Each of these models indicates that FAW can establish in warm, moist regions on every continent except Antarctica.…”
Section: Climate and Spread Modellingmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The potential distribution of FAW has been modelled using a variety of methods (Fig. 3A and 3B) (du Plessis et al 2018;Early et al 2018;Timilsena et al 2022). Each of these models indicates that FAW can establish in warm, moist regions on every continent except Antarctica.…”
Section: Climate and Spread Modellingmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This is followed by a rapid northward migration as far north as Canada in the spring and summer months [4] that correlates with the northward progression of corn plantings, which provides an abundant and perhaps essential early season host for high density migratory populations [50,51]. In comparison, the climate of much of South America is compatible with FAW year-round, causing much less seasonal variability in host availability for both strains [52]. It is plausible that these conditions may create selection pressures unique to North America favoring the adaptation of the R-strain to corn.…”
Section: Plos Onementioning
confidence: 99%
“…The data and metadata were fetched, re-used, and correlated with primary or secondary data (collected from the laboratory, fieldwork activities, etc.) to discover new knowledge [67][68][69]. It is therefore imperative that the fetched metadata are aligned with ontologies defined in the common ontology management platform (discussed in Section 3.2.1) before they are fused with existing data in the respective data collector using through executing inbuilt APIs in ODK [59], KoBoToolbox [61] and REDCap [60].…”
Section: The Digital Data Collectorsmentioning
confidence: 99%