Potential climate-driven changes to seabird demography: implications for assessments of marine renewable energy development

Searle, KR; Butler, Adam; Waggitt, James J.; Evans, PGH; Quinn, LR; Bogdanova, MI; Evans, T.R. Jeff; Braithwaite, JE; Daunt, Francis

doi:10.3354/meps14045

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…More recently, some species have begun to colonise offshore structures, as noted for the black-legged Kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) in the North Atlantic and often achieving higher productivity than in a natural setting [71]. Against a general trend of climate-driven seabird decline [72], this refuge may become an important factor to maintain populations [71].…”

Section: Food Websmentioning

confidence: 99%

Haven or hell? A perspective on the ecology of offshore oil and gas platforms

Fortune,

Madgett,

Scarborough Bull

et al. 2024

PLOS Sustain Transform

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Offshore oil and gas platforms (OGP) have been installed worldwide and initially with limited consideration given to the nature of their positive or negative long-term interactions with the natural marine habitats. However, as OGP reach the end of their useful life, with many being decommissioned and removed, it is timely to review the growing evidence of the association of marine biota with OGP to provide a summary and synthesis for policy makers and to give insight to decisions in increasingly crowded marine spatial plans. In the last decade, there has been rapid increase in studies concerning the ecological role of OGP. This research reveals strong contextual difference between platforms in different geographical regions, but all OGP add to local biodiversity particularly where hard substrata are introduced to areas dominated by depositional (mud and sand) habitats. This includes the attraction and increased productivity of fish, sessile invertebrates, and algae while also affecting change in the benthic habitats beneath platforms. There also evidence of the OGP changing local hydrodynamics conditions with effects on phytoplankton and local scour. In terms of the biota associated with OGP, water depth is a major driver of community type across systems. This study emphasises that while knowledge of OGP communities and species has improved, there are still significant knowledge gaps that may prevent the most environmentally beneficial decisions being made around decommissioning. There are few studies following the effect of decommissioning (topping, toppling, or removal) on the ecology of the systems as they change with time (longitudinal research) for the decommissioning event. There is also a need for more studies comparing the biodiversity and functionality of OGP system to artificial and natural reefs and habitats to better understand the ecological cost-benefit of decommissioning scenarios. Finally, commercial data is often unavailable and even when available, surveys are often conducted using varied methodology that prevents comparative analysis. By imposing/agreeing standards and sharing data around the ecological cost-benefit of decommissioning strategies, improve policy guidance concerning OGP planning, and management might emerge.

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Section: Food Websmentioning

confidence: 99%

Haven or hell? A perspective on the ecology of offshore oil and gas platforms

Fortune,

Madgett,

Scarborough Bull

et al. 2024

PLOS Sustain Transform

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“…As the Earth's climate continues to warm, many oceanic and atmospheric-physical processes are changing and will continue to do so in the coming century [1,2], with strong repercussions on ecosystems and biological populations [3][4][5]. Understanding the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems has become a primary objective in ecological research and conservation science [6][7][8]. However, our capability to anticipate the effects of climate change on biological systems remains limited [9,10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local-scale impacts of extreme events drive demographic asynchrony in neighbouring top predator populations

et al. 2023

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Extreme weather events are among the most critical aspects of climate change, but our understanding of their impacts on biological populations remains limited. Here, we exploit the rare opportunity provided by the availability of concurrent longitudinal demographic data on two neighbouring marine top predator populations (the black-browed albatross, Thalassarche melanophris , breeding in two nearby colonies) hit by an exceptionally violent storm during one study year. The aim of this study is to quantify the demographic impacts of extreme events on albatrosses and test the hypothesis that extreme events would synchronously decrease survival rates of neighbouring populations. Using demographic modelling we found that, contrary to our expectation, the storm affected the survival of albatrosses from only one of the two colonies, more than doubling the annual mortality rate compared to the study average. Furthermore, the effects of storms on adult survival would lead to substantial population declines (up to 2% per year) under simulated scenarios of increased storm frequencies. We, therefore, conclude that extreme events can result in very different local-scale impacts on sympatric populations. Crucially, by driving demographic asynchrony, extreme events can hamper our understanding of the demographic responses of wild populations to mean, long-term shifts in climate.

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“…Temporal and spatial heterogeneity of stratification patterns arising from changes in habitat and environmental conditions, however these changes occur, may subsequently affect the distribution of marine predators like seabirds and marine mammals. Climate-and habitat-mediated variability in the abundance, richness and distribution of prey (namely marine fishes) are therefore primary mechanisms connecting heterogeneity in the marine environment with changes to predator trophic and population ecology, particularly in seabirds, marine mammals and predatory fish species (Florko et al, 5 2021;García Molinos et al, 2016;Hazen et al, 2013;Poloczanska et al, 2016;Sadykova et al, 2020;Searle et al, 2022;Weimerskirch et al, 2003). Changes in these mechanisms are driven by both natural and anthropogenic processes, and investigation of the relative contribution of these is key to understanding the drivers of temporal variation in resource availability, and the potential effect upon marine predator population dynamics.…”

Section: Environmental Heterogeneity and Marine Predator Ecologymentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of heterogeneity in the population ecology and resilience of marine predator species

Roberts

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The marine environment is intrinsically linked to the biotic and abiotic processes that regulate the life support systems of the planet, including nutrient and hydrological cycling, climate patterns, geological processes, oxygen production, and nutritional resourcing. Long-term natural cycles in climate variation have pronounced impacts on weather systems, sea surface temperature and marine food webs. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in these systems and processes can influence communities directly via modulation of survival, reproductive success, and the distribution of resources, and anthropogenic pressures can contribute to heterogeneity in natural systems, influencing bottom-up and top-down processes. For ecological communities regulated by top-down processes, climate-linked shifts in the distribution, population and community dynamics of predators are likely to have pronounced effects on ecosystem composition and function. The influence of environmental variability upon predator ecology is therefore an area of particular research focus. In marine habitats, spatial and temporal heterogeneity in sea surface temperature has been associated with changes to reproductive phenology in predator and prey species, while spatial and temporal heterogeneity in resource availability may be associated with changes in the survival rates of animals across developmental stages. Likewise, heterogeneity in the approach to data collection, management and analysis may influence the interpretation of results and guide subsequent management decisions. To investigate the role of heterogeneity in marine predator ecology I focus on two apex predators in the Irish Sea: the grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) and the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus). I explore how temporal heterogeneity of environmental conditions may affect reproductive phenology, how spatial and temporal heterogeneity of data collection and analysis methods affects estimates of population dynamics, and how heterogeneity in survival at different developmental stages can be reflected in population-level dynamics. After providing an overview of the focus of my thesis in Chapter one, using multi-decade time series from eight major grey seal and Manx shearwater breeding sites, I use logistic population growth models and generalised additive models in Chapter two to explore how changes in the timing and progression of the grey seal pupping season are dependent on climatic drivers. In Chapters three and four I use matrix population models (MPM) to quantify the effects of data aggregation and substitution of missing model parameters upon estimates of population dynamics over multiple spatial and temporal scales. In Chapter five I then continue the application of MPMs to calculate indices of resilience in scenarios of perturbation, to explore the population-level effects of reduced survival in specific demographic groups, namely fledgling, juvenile and adult Manx shearwater. My results suggest that contemporaneous heterogeneity in broad- and local-scale climate indices is less influential to reproductive phenology than intrinsic drivers, and that variation in survival rates of year-one animals is largely explained by fine-scale spatial heterogeneity. The substitution of demographic information when parameterising population models introduced biases and uncertainty into projections of population dynamics, and the simulated reduction of survival in juvenile animals appeared to have a potential latent effect on population stability – the consequences of reduced juvenile survival being realised as a reduction in recruitment to the breeding adult population. Finally, in Chapter six I summarise the main findings of this mosaic of studies and discuss them in the context of existing research, to identify avenues for future research. These investigations highlight the need for intrinsic and spatial processes to be incorporated into studies of climatic drivers of ecological change, and the importance of ensuring the accuracy and appropriate collection, management and analysis of data sources. They also illustrate the potential population-level effects of perturbations to survival in demographic groups which can be logistically difficult to monitor, and act as a reminder that the challenging option is often the one that is necessary.

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Potential climate-driven changes to seabird demography: implications for assessments of marine renewable energy development

Cited by 7 publications

References 48 publications

Haven or hell? A perspective on the ecology of offshore oil and gas platforms

Haven or hell? A perspective on the ecology of offshore oil and gas platforms

Local-scale impacts of extreme events drive demographic asynchrony in neighbouring top predator populations

The role of heterogeneity in the population ecology and resilience of marine predator species

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