Population Trends of Common British Butterflies at Monitored Sites

Pollard, Ernest C.; Moss, D.; Yates, T. J.

doi:10.2307/2404411

Cited by 101 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…This fact might play an important role in the case of multivoltine species (Pollard & Yates 1993). Most of these species are expected to widen their areas of infestation to higher latitudes and altitudes, as has been reported for butterflies (Pollard et al 1995, Hill et al 1999, 2002, Parmesan et al 1999. Increasing temperatures could support the earlier termination of diapause in overwintering species, causing them to appear earlier in the year.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European region

Kocmánková¹,

Trnka²,

Eitzinger³

et al. 2010

Clim. Res.

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The intensity and area of occurrence of pest species are strongly determined by the overall climate conditions of a locality and the weather pattern within a given season in combination with other factors (e.g. host plant abundance). While inter-seasonal weather variability and consequent fluctuations of individual pest species are well-known phenomena, changes in overall climate conditions and associated range shifts of particular species have likewise become important areas of research, especially during the last decade. The present study demonstrates the methodology and benefits of climate-driven modelling tools using the European corn borer (ECB) Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner, 1796) and Colorado potato beetle (CPB) Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say, 1824) as examples. CLIMEX models of the potential geographical distributions of each species were created and validated under present climate conditions. Both models were then used to study the effects of climate change on ECB and CPB by estimating changes in population dynamics and/or infestation pressure during the first half of the 21st century. Simulations were conducted using 3 global circulation models (HadCM3, NCAR-PCM, and ECHAM4) and scaled by low and high values of global temperature change. The results predict an increase in newly established areas and in the number of pest generations per year. The ratio of arable land affected by a particular number of generations is also expected to increase. Under the HadCM3-high 2050 scenario, this ratio increases by about 43 and 48% for the second generations of CPB and ECB, respectively. Another significant result is shown for higher altitudes currently unoccupied by pests. We recorded rapid generation increase (from 0 to 2), which supports the hypothesis that these areas are more affected by increased temperatures.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European region

Kocmánková¹,

Trnka²,

Eitzinger³

et al. 2010

Clim. Res.

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“…Changes in arthropod abundance and diversity in arable ecosystems are difficult to quantify because of the inherent difficulty of long-term monitoring (Woiwod 1991) and the enormous species diversity within the group (Potts 1991). However, published data suggests that there has been a general decline in many non-pest invertebrate species that are associated with farmland (Robinson & Sutherland 2002) and that particular groups, such as the Lepidoptera (Woiwod & Harrington 1994;Pollard et al 1995) and bumble-bees (Williams 1986), have declined markedly over the past 50 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Invertebrate responses to the management of genetically modified herbicide–tolerant and conventional spring crops. II. Within-field epigeal and aerial arthropods

Haughton

Champion²,

Hawes

et al. 2003

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B

133

108

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The effects of the management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops on the abundances of aerial and epigeal arthropods were assessed in 66 beet, 68 maize and 67 spring oilseed rape sites as part of the Farm Scale Evaluations of GMHT crops. Most higher taxa were insensitive to differences between GMHT and conventional weed management, but significant effects were found on the abundance of at least one group within each taxon studied. Numbers of butterflies in beet and spring oilseed rape and of Heteroptera and bees in beet were smaller under the relevant GMHT crop management, whereas the abundance of Collembola was consistently greater in all GMHT crops. Generally, these effects were specific to each crop type, reflected the phenology and ecology of the arthropod taxa, were indirect and related to herbicide management. These results apply generally to agriculture across Britain, and could be used in mathematical models to predict the possible long-term effects of the widespread adoption of GMHT technology. The results for bees and butterflies relate to foraging preferences and might or might not translate into effects on population densities, depending on whether adoption leads to forage reductions over large areas. These species, and the detritivore Collembola, may be useful indicator species for future studies of GMHT management.

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“…This fact could play an important role in the case of multivoltine species. Most of these species are expected to widen their infestation area to higher latitudes and altitudes, as has been seen for butterfl ies (POLLARD et al, 1995;HILL et al, 2002). A higher survival rate during the overwintering period could result in an increase in the overwintering population and a consequent abundance of insects on crops in the summer.…”

mentioning

confidence: 98%

Pest occurrence model in current climate - validation study for European domain

Svobodová¹,

Trnka²,

Dubrovský³

et al. 2013

Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendelianae Brun.

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SVOBODOVÁ EVA, TRNKA MIROSLAV, DUBROVSKÝ MARTIN, SEMERÁDOVÁ DANIELA, EITZINGER JOSEF, ŽALUD ZDENĚK, ŠTĚPÁNEK PETR: Pest occurrence model in current climatevalidation study for European domain. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 2013, LXI, No. 1, pp. 205-214 The present study yields detail validation of the pest occurrence models under current climate in wide European domain. Study organisms involve Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana, Ostrinia nubilalis, Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus, Rhopalosiphum padi, and Sitobion avenae. Method used in this study belongs to the category climate matching (CLIMEX model) allowing the estimation of areas climatically favourable for species persistence based on the climatic parameters characterising the species development. In the process of model validation parameters were iteratively tested and altered to truly describe the pest presence. The modelled pests presence was verifi ed by comparison of the observed pests occurrence with the number of generations in given modelled area. The notable component of the model parameterization was the sensitivity analyses testing the reaction of species development on changing meteorological items. Parameterization of the factors causing distribution patterns of study species was successful and modelled potential distributions of species correspond well to known core distribution areas for all of these species. This validation study is intended as an initial for forthcoming studies focused on the estimation of geographical shi s of selected pests in the conditions of climate change within the Europe.climate change, climate matching, pests, endangered areas, northern range, CLIMEX Productivity of crops grown for human consumption is at risk due to the incidence of pests, especially weeds, pathogens and animal pests, for instance without crop protection almost 75 % of attainable potato production would be lost to pests (OERKE, 2006). Pest life cycles are aff ected by various factors, among which climate conditions are the most signifi cant. Climate can limit the distribution of a species directly by infl uencing survival and fecundity or indirectly through its eff ects on interacting species, including food sources, natural enemies and competitors (GASTON, 2003). Under current climate conditions, insect species diversity per area tends to decrease with increasing latitude. A similar trend is usually seen with increasing altitude (GASTON, WILLIAMS, 1996).The present validation study represents the base material for forthcoming studies estimating the occurrence area of selected pests in the conditions of climate change. Projected studies will focused on the geographical shi of species northern range and determination of areas the most endangered by newly species establishment. Warmer conditions of climate change may be expected to promote pole ward extension of the ranges of species that are currently limited by low temperature. Changes in climate may result in alterations in the geogra...

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Population Trends of Common British Butterflies at Monitored Sites

Cited by 101 publications

References 7 publications

Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European region

Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European region

Invertebrate responses to the management of genetically modified herbicide–tolerant and conventional spring crops. II. Within-field epigeal and aerial arthropods

Pest occurrence model in current climate - validation study for European domain

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