Population Forecast with Focus on Emigration: Scenarios for the Case of Peripheral Region

Abstract

Sustainable decision-making and policies for regional development need clear understanding of future trends in population change. Emigration as one of the core factors of population change causes the greatest uncertainty in the demographic forecasts. Population change due to emigration is bright especially in peripheral regions what strengthens their unfavourable socio-economic conditions. Within the present study, the authors forecast population change due to emigration in peripheral region with high emigration rates. The authors offer three scenarios – current, half of current, and zero emigration, which demonstrate how differentiated population change due to emigration may be in case of different suppositions. Such approach focuses on the issue at local level. For numerical expression of population change, the authors apply simulation model based on system dynamics methods. Forecast results of future population change due to emigration in each scenario may be as a basis for timely inclusion of issues in regional development policies.

Human Capital at the Regional Level: Population Forecast Insights into Latvia from a Long-Term Perspective

“…System dynamics enables the elaboration of long-term population models (Kunte & Damani 2015). This study did not identify any scientific work devoted to population forecasts at the regional level that apply the system dynamics method; therefore, this study applies system dynamics for Latvia, system dynamics for population forecasts (Homutiņins et al, 2021). Other research on Latvia applies this method for examining technological and social considerations for energy policy planning (Feofilovs et al, 2018) and forest biotechonomic sectors using an economic model of the national economy (Azis et al, 2017).…”