Política econômica do segundo governo FHC: mudança em condições adversas

Abstract

Este artigo discute a política macroeconômica do segundo governo de Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1999-2002), marcada por mudanças nas áreas fiscal, cambial e monetária. Na área fiscal, passou-se a gerar superávit primário e avançou-se nos esforços de reforma estrutural. Na área cambial, a passagem do regime de câmbio administrado para uma flutuação suja permitiu o ajuste do elevado déficit em conta corrente verificado no primeiro mandato. Na área monetária, o regime de metas de inflação substituiu a subordinação da política monetária à defesa do regime cambial. Após tais alterações, o país passou a contar com um regime mais sustentável e transparente, cuja eficácia permaneceu limitada pela herança do regime anterior, gerador de desequilíbrios, e pelas instabilidades financeiras internacional e domésticas no período. Acreditamos que o novo regime é adequado para a criação das condições no sentido da recuperação do investimento e do crescimento econômico, mas os principais desafios atuais residem mais em aspectos institucionais e regulatórios do que no regime de política macroeconômica.<br>This paper analyses the macroeconomic policy of FHC's second government (1999-2002), that was marked by fiscal, foreign exchange and monetary changes. In the fiscal area, a primary superavit was generated and the efforts towards a structural reform were increased. Regarding foreign exchange policies, the move from administered exchange to one of dirty floating allowed for an adjustment of the high deficit in the current account that occurred in the first term of office. In the monetary field, the regime of inflation goals substituted the subordination of the monetary policy to the defense of the exchange regime. These alterations brought a more sustainable and transparent regime to the country, but its efficiency was limited due to the inheritance of the old regime, that generated unbalances and also to the international and domestic financial instabilities of the period. The new regime is adequate for the creation of conditions for the recovery of investments and for economic growth, but the main present chalenges have more to do with the institutional and regulatory aspects than with the macroeconomic policy regime

INSTITUIÇÕES E DESEMPENHO SOCIOECONÔMICO NA DEMOCRACIA BRASILEIRA: Preferências Liberalizantes e Preferências Distributivas

“…Assim, no final do primeiro mantado (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998), o êxito do Plano Real no combate à inflação implicou em novos problemas, como a elevação da dívida pública interna e externa. Dessa forma, houve estabilização com desequilíbrios, de modo que no segundo mandato de FHC (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002) o foco de ação passou a estar nos ajustes estruturais para obtenção de equilíbrio fiscal (Oliveira & Turolla, 2003).…”

Do Concepts Matter? Latin America and South America in the Discourse of Brazilian Foreign Policymakers

“…FHC's second term (from 1999 to 2002) was marked by political and economic crises, by the exhaustion of neoliberalism and of the bene its to be gained from the relationship with traditional powers. These factors drove a range of shifts such as a transition from the notion of liberal optimism to a perception of an asymmetric globalization, which led to a deepening of regional relations (OLIVEIRA and TUROLLA, 2003;SILVA, 2008;VISENTINI, 2013).…”

Real Estate Market of a Brazilian Metropolis: Sustained Growth or Speculative Bubble?

“…In the real estate market of Belo Horizonte, the increase reached 19 percentage points in the period considered (Table 1). Contrary to what happened in developed countries that reacted with fiscal and monetary stimulus policies to face the mistrust crisis, the Brazilian government was obliged to correct fiscal and external imbalances from the first phase of the stabilization effort (Oliveira & Turolla, 2003). The country implemented a triple regime change, involving exchange, monetary and fiscal areas, which resulted in lower economic growth and lower demand for real estate, reflecting the retreat of the price-to-rent ratio of Belo Horizonte.…”