Pleural cancer mortality in Spain: time-trends and updating of predictions up to 2020

López‐Abente, Gonzalo; García-Gómez, Montserrat; Navarro, Alfredo Menéndez; Fernández-Navarro, Pablo; Ramis, Rebeca; García‐Pérez, Javier; Cervantes, Marta; Ferreras, Eva; Jiménez-Muñoz, María; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

doi:10.1186/1471-2407-13-528

Cited by 37 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 25 publications

(41 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Differences in the period of maximum burden of MPM cases are largely determined by past national consumption of asbestos and the implementation of bans of its usage [29]. This inference is also supported by asbestos consumption models, where the gap between the peak of asbestos use and that of MPM cases is estimated to be about 30 to 40 years [7,8,41,[43][44][45][46]. In our case, the Italian ban implemented in 1992 is probably starting just now to show its positive effects.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Sweden is a notable exception, where the peak in MPM deaths was observed already in the 1990s [13], although a recent study seems to indicate a new increase in the number of deaths from mesothelioma after 2000 [37]. According to the most recent predictions, the number of MPM cases in Spain will increase at least until 2020 [41]. U.S. men have probably already reached the peak of MPM cases during the 2002-2007 period, although the MPM epidemic is predicted to last at least until 2042 [42].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use

Oddone

Bollon

Nava

et al. 2020

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Even if the epidemic of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is still far from being over worldwide, the health effects of regulations banning asbestos can be evaluated in the countries that implemented them early. Estimates of MPM future burden can be useful to inform and support the implementation of anti-asbestos health policies all around the world. With this aim we described the trends of MPM deaths in Italy (1970–2014) and predicted the future number of cases in both sexes (2015–2039), with consideration of the national asbestos ban that was issued in 1992. The Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) provided MPM mortality figures. Cases ranging from 25 to 89 years of age were included in the analysis. For each five-year period from 1970 to 2014, mortality rates were calculated and age–period–cohort Poisson models were used to predict future burden of MPM cases until 2039. During the period 1970–2014 a total number of 28,907 MPM deaths were observed. MPM deaths increased constantly over the study period, ranging from 1356 cases in 1970–1974 to 5844 cases in 2010–2014. The peak of MPM cases is expected to be reached in the period 2020–2024 (about 7000 cases). The decrease will be slow: about 26,000 MPM cases are expected to occur in Italy during the next 20 years (2020–2039). The MPM epidemic in Italy is far from being concluded despite the national ban implemented in 1992, and the peak is expected in 2020–2024, in both sexes. Our results are consistent with international literature.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use

Oddone

Bollon

Nava

et al. 2020

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The statistical model most often used to make projections was the Poisson age-cohort, either classical3 19 23 28 29 31 32 34 36 38 40–42 or Bayesian 33 37. Others used log-linear or generalised additive models relating incidence of MM or mortality to past consumption of asbestos 20 21 22 24 26 27 32 35 39 44. Some authors found quite different predictions between the two approaches (eg, in France and UK), showing that the Poisson age-cohort model may overestimate future burden of MM compared with that obtained taking into account past use of asbestos 20 22.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incidence of mesothelioma in Lombardy, Italy: exposure to asbestos, time patterns and future projections

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ObjectivesIn Italy, asbestos has been extensively used from 1945 to 1992. We evaluated the impact of exposure to asbestos on occurrence of malignant mesothelioma (MM) in the Lombardy Region, Northwest Italy, the most populated and industrialised Italian region.MethodsFrom the Lombardy Mesothelioma Registry, we selected all incident cases of MM diagnosed between 2000 and 2012. We described sources of exposure to asbestos and examined time trends of MM rates. Using Poisson age-cohort models, we derived projections of burden of MM in the Lombardy population for the period 2013–2029.ResultsIn 2000–2012, we recorded 4442 cases of MM (2850 men, 1592 women). Occupational exposure to asbestos was more frequent in men (73.6%) than in women (38.2%). Non-occupational exposure was found for 13.6% of women and 3.6% of men. The average number of cases of MM per year was still increasing (+3.6% in men, +3.3% in women). Incidence rates were still increasing in individuals aged 65+ years and declining in younger people. A maximum of 417 cases of MM (267 men, 150 women) are expected in 2019. We forecast there will be 6832 more cases (4397 in men, 2435 in women) in the period 2013–2029, for a total of 11 274 cases of MM (7247 in men, 4027 in women) in 30 years.ConclusionsThis study documented a high burden of MM in both genders in the Lombardy Region, reflecting extensive occupational (mainly in men) and non-occupational (mainly in women) exposure to asbestos in the past. Incidence rates are still increasing; a downturn in occurrence of MM is expected to occur after 2019.

show abstract

“…31 We are currently witnessing a rise in number of these diseases, with the prediction that occupationally-related deaths due to pleural mesothelioma will continue in Spain until at least 2040. 32 Changes in the Spanish insurance system have been called for as a matter of urgency, and further research is required on OD recognition criteria. 33 Asbestos-related cancers were included in the OD list in 1978 in Spain, earlier than in France (1985), Italy (1994), and Belgium (1999).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asbestos-related occupational cancers compensated under the Spanish National Insurance System, 1978–2011

García-Gómez

Navarro

López

2014

International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: In 1978, asbestos-related occupational cancers were added to the Spanish list of occupational diseases. However, there are no full accounts of compensated cases since their inclusion. Objective: To analyze the cases of asbestos-related cancer recognized as occupational in Spain between 1978 and 2011. Methods: Cases were obtained from the Spanish Employment Ministry. Specific incidence rates by year, economic activity, and occupation were obtained. We compared mortality rates of mesothelioma and bronchus and lung cancer mortality in Spain and the European Union. Results: Between 1978 and 2011, 164 asbestos-related occupational cancers were recognized in Spain, with a mean annual rate of 0.08 per 10 5 employees (0.13 in males, 0.002 in females). Under-recognition rates were an estimated 93.6% (males) and 99.7% (females) for pleural mesothelioma and 98.8% (males) and 100% (females) for bronchus and lung cancer. In Europe for the year 2000, asbestos-related occupational cancer rates ranged from 0.04 per 10 5 employees in Spain to 7.32 per 10 5 employees in Norway. Conclusions: These findings provide evidence of gross under-recognition of asbestos-related occupational cancers in Spain. Future work should investigate cases treated in the National Healthcare System to better establish the impact of asbestos on health in Spain.

show abstract

Pleural cancer mortality in Spain: time-trends and updating of predictions up to 2020

Cited by 37 publications

References 25 publications

Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use

Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use

Incidence of mesothelioma in Lombardy, Italy: exposure to asbestos, time patterns and future projections

Asbestos-related occupational cancers compensated under the Spanish National Insurance System, 1978–2011

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About