Using a 40 yr demographic database of little penguins Eudyptula minor, we investigated anticipated impacts of climatic changes on the penguin population at Phillip Island, southeastern Australia, and the potential economic impact on the associated tourism industry over the next century. We project a small loss of penguin breeding habitat due to sea level rise, although breeding habitat is unlikely to be limiting over this period. However, some erosion in the vicinity of tourism infrastructure will undoubtedly occur which will have economic implications. We anti cipate little direct impact of decreased rainfall and humidity. However, fire risk may increase, and extreme climate events may reduce adult and chick survival slightly. Warmer oceans are likely to improve recruitment into the breeding population but the effect on adult survival is unclear. Overall, many aspects of little penguin biology are likely to be affected by climatic change but no net negative effect on population size is projected from existing analyses. Ocean acidification has the potential to be a highly significant negative influence, but present assessments are speculative. Some of the predicted negative impacts can be addressed in the shortterm, particularly those resulting from expected changes to the terrestrial environment. Others, particularly in the marine environment, appear to have limited options for mitigation locally. In the absence of evidence indicating population decline, economic impact may be confined to issues for tourism infrastructure due to increased sea-levels during storm events.KEY WORDS: Climate change · Resilience · Adaptation · Seabird · Southern Australia · Penguin 58: 67-79, 2013 by location and species . In Western Australia, for example, breeding distributions of tropical seabirds shifted southward as regional sea-surface temperatures (SST) increased (Dunlop 2009), and changes have been observed in seabird breeding timing and reproductive success (Dunlop 2009, Surman & Nicholson 2009, including for the little penguin (Cannell et al. 2012). Warmer SSTs, asso ciated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have also been associated with reductions in seabird populations on the Great Barrier Reef (Heatwole et al. 1996, Batianoff & Cornelius 2005. Increased SSTs are believed to reduce prey availability to seabirds through decreased productivity at lower trophic levels and/or movement of forage fish or subsurface predators, either horizontally or vertical ly (Peck et al. 2004, Erwin & Congdon 2007, Devney et al. 2010. Strong winds and severe storms also affect seabird breeding participation, success of breeding and mortality (King et al. 1992, Garnett et al. 2010.
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FREE REE ACCESS CCESSClim ResLong-term datasets are central to understanding how species respond to climate change (Poloczanska et al. 2007). The datasets available for little penguins on Phillip Island are unusual in their durations (since 1968 for some paramet...