Phenotypic correlates of potential range size and range filling in European trees

Bravo, David; Pulido, Fernando; Araújo, Miguel B.; Diniz‐Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; García‐Valdés, Raúl; Kollmann, Johannes; Svenning, Jens‐Christian; Valladares, Fernando; Zavala, Miguel Á.

doi:10.1016/j.ppees.2014.05.005

Cited by 42 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Overall, we cannot expect the predictive traits we used to give insights into every process shaping species distributions, but our results give insights into a few key processes. Furthermore, our results are comparable between species and reveal limitations on species ranges at a spatial extent that is frequently used for estimating range filling (Svenning and Skov , Nogués‐Bravo et al ) and for assessments of the impacts of climate change (Araújo et al ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Equipped to cope with climate change: traits associated with range filling across European taxa

Estrada

Morales‐Castilla

Meireles³

et al. 2017

Ecography

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In order to understand the ecological effects of climate change it is essential to forecast suitable areas for species in the future. However, species’ ability to reach potentially suitable areas is also critical for species survival. These ‘range‐shift’ abilities can be studied using life‐history traits related to four range‐shift stages: emigration, movement, establishment, and proliferation. Here, we use the extent to which species’ ranges fill the climatically suitable area available (‘range filling’) as a proxy for the ability of European mammals and birds to shift their ranges under climate change. We detect which traits associate most closely with range filling. Drawing comparisons with a recent analysis for plants, we ask whether the latitudinal position of species’ ranges supports the assertion that post‐glacial range‐shift limitations cause disequilibrium between ranges and climate. We also disentangle which of the three taxonomic groups has greatest range filling. For mammals, generalists and early‐reproducing species have the greatest range filling. For birds, generalist species with high annual fecundity, which live longer than expected based on body size, have the greatest range filling. Although we consider traits related to the four range‐shift stages, only traits related to establishment and proliferation ability significantly influence range filling of mammals and birds. Species with the greatest range filling are those whose range centroid falls in the latitudinal centre of Europe, suggesting that post‐glacial range expansion is a leading cause of disequilibrium with climate, although other explanations are also possible. Range filling of plants is lower than that of mammals or birds, suggesting that plants are more range‐limited by non‐climatic factors. Therefore, plants might be face greater non‐climatic restraints on range shifts than mammals or birds.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Equipped to cope with climate change: traits associated with range filling across European taxa

Estrada

Morales‐Castilla

Meireles³

et al. 2017

Ecography

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“…Better performance of mid‐ and late‐successional species than pioneer species under changing climate may be an effect of better drought tolerance (Niinemets & Valladares, ; Nogués‐Bravo et al., ). Our model for Q. robur showed a more optimistic scenario for the western part of the current distribution and less optimistic for the Balkanian Peninsula and Italy than Sykes et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate is an important driver of the physiological processes connected with tree performance and survival (Kozlowski & Pallardy, ). Limits to species occurrences may result from lack of growth ability or phenological disruptions such as flower freezing, failure of fruit ripening (Morin, Augspurger, & Chuine, ; Scheffers et al., ), or drought (Gazol et al., ; Nogués‐Bravo et al., ). Also, climate change‐mediated disturbances affect growth of trees, especially due to catastrophic winds and herbivorous insect outbreaks (Seidl et al., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

Dyderski

Paź

Frelich

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

645

403

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Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation.

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“…In particular, species that are able to tolerate broader environmental conditions are hypothesized to be more widely distributed: niche breadth positively affects range size [11, 12] through an increase in species’ potential range size. Biotic interactions (e.g., greater parasitism in warm climates) and dispersal limitation (e.g., colonization lags following glaciations) are hypothesized to exclude species from occurring in all suitable climatic conditions, such that species whose biology allows them to fill a greater proportion of their fundamental niche should have larger ranges [13–16]. Last, niche position, i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Autocorrelation Can Generate Stronger Correlations between Range Size and Climatic Niches Than the Biological Signal — A Demonstration Using Bird and Mammal Range Maps

Boucher‐Lalonde

Currie

2016

PLoS ONE

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Species’ geographic ranges could primarily be physiological tolerances drawn in space. Alternatively, geographic ranges could be only broadly constrained by physiological climatic tolerances: there could generally be much more proximate constraints on species’ ranges (dispersal limitation, biotic interactions, etc.) such that species often occupy a small and unpredictable subset of tolerable climates. In the literature, species’ climatic tolerances are typically estimated from the set of conditions observed within their geographic range. Using this method, studies have concluded that broader climatic niches permit larger ranges. Similarly, other studies have investigated the biological causes of incomplete range filling. But, when climatic constraints are measured directly from species’ ranges, are correlations between species’ range size and climate necessarily consistent with a causal link? We evaluated the extent to which variation in range size among 3277 bird and 1659 mammal species occurring in the Americas is statistically related to characteristics of species’ realized climatic niches. We then compared how these relationships differed from the ones expected in the absence of a causal link. We used a null model that randomizes the predictor variables (climate), while retaining their broad spatial autocorrelation structure, thereby removing any causal relationship between range size and climate. We found that, although range size is strongly positively related to climatic niche breadth, range filling and, to a lesser extent, niche position in nature, the observed relationships are not always stronger than expected from spatial autocorrelation alone. Thus, we conclude that equally strong relationships between range size and climate would result from any processes causing ranges to be highly spatially autocorrelated.

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Phenotypic correlates of potential range size and range filling in European trees

Cited by 42 publications

References 65 publications

Equipped to cope with climate change: traits associated with range filling across European taxa

Equipped to cope with climate change: traits associated with range filling across European taxa

How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

Spatial Autocorrelation Can Generate Stronger Correlations between Range Size and Climatic Niches Than the Biological Signal — A Demonstration Using Bird and Mammal Range Maps

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