Phenology is a major determinant of tree species range

Abstract

Global warming is expected to have a major impact on plant distributions, an issue of key importance in biological conservation. However, very few models are able to predict species distribution accurately, although we know species respond individually to climate change. Here we show, using a process‐based model (PHENOFIT), that tree species distributions can be predicted precisely if the biological processes of survival and reproductive success only are incorporated as a function of phenology. These predictions showed great predictive power when tested against present distributions of two North American species – quaking aspen and sugar maple – indicating that on a broad scale, the fundamental niche of trees coincides with their realized niche. Phenology is shown here to be a major determinant of plant species range and should therefore be used to assess the consequences of global warming on plant distributions, and the spread of alien plant species.

Advances in first bloom dates and increased occurrences of yearly second blooms in eastern China since the 1960s: further phenological evidence of climate warming

“…Each plant species has physiological threshold temperatures that they can tolerate and, although plants can adapt and survive within a certain range of conditions, there are both maximum and minimum temperature thresholds beyond which advance or delay of phenophases can lead to long-term developmental deviations that cause permanent changes to plant physiologies. As indicated by Chuine and Beaubien (2001), phenology is shown to be a major determinant of plant species range and should therefore be used to assess the consequences of global warming on plant distribution and the spread of alien plant species. If this trend continues, these thermophilic plants may begin to demonstrate permanent patterns of spatial migration, which is why further study into these phenomena, especially using data collected from CPON, is both necessary and warranted.…”

Temperate and boreal forest tree phenology: from organ-scale processes to terrestrial ecosystem models

“…The seasonality of physiological processes is an essential component of terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs; Kramer 1995) and of process-based species distribution models (Chuine and Beaubien 2001). This factor is key for an accurate representation of the interannual variability of the carbon balance (Delpierre et al 2012), the tree resistance to abiotic stresses, and the tree reproductive success.…”

“…The modeling of fruit maturation or cone development has received even less attention in forest tree species, and most studies (but see Chuine and Beaubien 2001) consider crops and fruit trees (e.g., Yin et al 1995;Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri et al 2009, but see Mutke et al 2003). Fruit maturation models represent the action of temperature from the flowering date, first on fruit cell multiplication and growth and, second, on the rate of carbohydrate accumulation in the fruit.…”

Contrasting relations between diversity of candidate genes and variation of bud burst in natural and segregating populations of European oaks

“…Spatial distribution and abundance of long-lived species, such as forest trees, is closely related to phenological events, and especially bud burst (Chuine and Beaubien, 2001). Changes in the date of bud burst may modify the length of the growing season, the flowering time and reproductive success of trees.…”