Percentiles and a cyclic approach for the methodology of scenario predictive planning of promising specialization of the region

Abstract

Subject. This article deals with the problems of development of promising sectors of the region's economy. Objectives. The article aims to assess the scenarios of regional industry changes considering a case study of the automotive industry. Methods. For the study, we used the bootstrap and wavelet transform techniques. Results. The article describes the inertial, pessimistic (5% percentile) and optimistic (95% percentile) scenarios for the development of the automotive industry and shows the range of possible deviations of industry dynamics in the case of the influence of external and internal factors. Conclusions. The proposed methodology and tools make it possible to fine-tune the forecast of industry dynamics, take into account its possible deviations from a predetermined path during the year, and put management decisions into proactive impact effect.