People at Risk of Flooding: Why Some Residents Take Precautionary Action While Others Do Not

Abstract

Self-protective behavior by residents of flood-prone urban areas can reduce monetary flood damage by 80%, and reduce the need for public risk management. But, research on the determinants of private households' prevention of damage by natural hazards is rare, especially in Germany. To answer the question of why some people take precautionary action while others do not, a socio-psychological model based on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) is developed, explaining private precautionary damage prevention by residents' perceptions of previous flood experience, risk of future floods, reliability of public flood protection, the efficacy and costs of self-protective behavior, their perceived ability to perform these actions, and non-protective responses like wishful thinking. The validity of the proposed model is explored by means of representative quantitative telephone surveys and regression analyses, and compared with a socio-economic model (including residents' age, gender, income, school degree and being owner or tenant). Participants were 157 residents of floodprone homes in Cologne, Germany, a city that has traditionally been subject to minor and major flood events. Results of the study show the explanatory power of the socio-psychological model, with important implications for public risk communication efforts. To motivate residents in flood-prone areas to take their share in damage prevention, it is essential to communicate not only the risk of flooding and its potential consequences, but also the possibility, effectiveness and cost of private precautionary measures.

The impact of flood action groups on the uptake of flood management measures

“…In line with other studies (Grothmann and Reusswig 2006, Zaalberg et al 2009, Bubeck et al 2013, Osberghaus 2015, socio-economic variables explain relatively little of the data. Here, we only find that ownership positively influences the uptake of insurance (D2-D5) which is not surprising given the owners financial responsibility.…”

“…Several empirical studies support the applicability of PMT to flooding: Grothmann and Reusswig (2006) applied PMT to flood adaptation behaviour of private households in Germany showing a good fit in contrast to socio-economic variables. Bubeck et al (2013) showed that coping appraisal is an important variable in terms of precautionary behaviour among flood-prone households along the river Rhine.…”

“…While several studies have found that increased knowledge and information correlate positively with precautionary behaviour (Thieken et al 2006, Miceli et al 2008, numerous studies found no evidence of a direct effect of information sources and flood adaptation behaviour when risk perception was controlled for (Zaleskiewicz et al 2002, Grothmann and Reusswig 2006, Botzen et al 2009). …”

“…Several studies have found PMT a suitable framework for exploring flood adaptation behaviour (Grothmann and Reusswig 2006, Zaalberg et al 2009, Bubeck et al 2012b, Bubeck et al 2013, Le Dang et al 2014.…”

Monitored versus experience-based perceptions of environmental change: evidence from coastal Tanzania

“…Interestingly, older respondents (more than 65 years old), living in rural areas of Tanga region were more likely to perceive temperature Our result on age of respondents and perceived climate change is consistent with several studies. Age has been frequently associated with climate risk perception (see Grothmann and Reusswig 2006;Lindell and Hwang 2008;Kellens et al 2011). Similarly, several researchers highlight the role of education in shaping perceived climate risks (see Residual Plots for Rainfall in Mwanza Figure 18.…”