Pengaruh Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja, Upah Minimum, Rata-Rata Lama Sekolah, dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur

Abstract

The high open unemployment rate in East Kalimantan Province reflects the structural imbalance of the labour market. This study aims to analyse the effect of the Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR), Minimum Wage, Average Years of Schooling (AYS), and Economic Growth on the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) across regencies and cities in East Kalimantan Province. This study uses panel data from 10 regencies and cities over the period 2017 to 2025, obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics of East Kalimantan Province. The data were analysed using panel data regression with the Common Effect Model (CEM) as the selected estimation approach, based on the Chow Test, Hausman Test, and Lagrange Multiplier Test. The results indicate that LFPR has a positive and significant effect on OUR; Minimum Wage has a negative and significant effect on OUR; AYS has a positive and significant effect on OUR; and Economic Growth has a negative and significant effect on OUR. The coefficient of determination (R2) shows that the four independent variables explain 64.84% of the variation in OUR in East Kalimantan. These findings suggest that labour market policies must address the mismatch between education output and industry demand, and that inclusive economic growth is essential for reducing open unemployment in resource-dependent regions.