Pengaruh JUB, Suku Bunga, Inflasi, Ekspor dan Impor terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat

Abstract

Fluctuations of exchange rate against Rupiah to U.S Dollar which unstable are influenced the domestic and foreign’s economicconditions. Macroeconomic conditions in the two countries both Indonesia and United States can make the exchange ratedepreciate or appreciate. The purpose of this research is to acknowledge the difference impact macro variables in both countriesIndonesia and the United States against the value on rupiah to US Dollar. Dynamic model is applied in this research that isPartial Adjustment Model (PAM). This model is considered to existing inertia variable that is expectation of exchange rateinfluence by the value of exchange rate that occurred previously. There are two analysis is descriptive analysis and causalanalysis. Causal is using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. OLS estimation of PAM shows all independent variable havepositive impact to the exchange rate expectation besides difference Export variable, in addition the difference of the interest ratevariable can’t influence the exchange rate significantly on important of the exchange rate expectation. In conclusion, theinterest rate policy is considered to influence the rupiah exchange rate if two countries do not change the interest ratesimultaneously and other macro policy variables must bring into line.

Short and Long Term Analysis of Foreign Exchange Rates Based on Income Levels

“…The findings are in line with research conducted by Hazizah, et al (2017) which said that exports have a negative and significant influence on the rupiah exchange rate per US dollar. While the export variable does not significantly affect the exchange rate in panel A (low-income countries), this is likely due to the accumulation of export value of low-income countries is still quite small compared to other panels, where according to world bank data in 2018, the export value of low-income countries is only US $ 92.56 billion and only 15.7 percent of the GDP of these countries.…”

“…While on the panel of countries with upper-middle incomes the value of imports in 2018 reached US$ 5.62 trillion or 23 percent of GDP and on the panel of countries with high incomes, the value of imports in 2018 reached US$ 16.93 trillion or 31.2 percent of GDP. The findings are in line with research conducted by Hazizah et al (2017) where an increase in the number of imports will make the rupiah exchange rate per US dollar depreciate. Meanwhile, different conditions occur in the panel of low-income countries, where imports have no significant effect on the exchange rates in those countries.…”

Analysis of Oil Price and Exchange Rate in Indonesia

“…The variable of changes in interest rates relative to the previous three-quarters period in the short term is insignificant. These results align with research by Hazizah et al (2017), which states that the difference in interest rates has no significant effect but has a positive direction. This shows that interest rate decreases and increases will not necessarily increase or decrease the exchange rate.…”

The Impact of Bank Indonesia Regulation No. 17/3/2015 on Exchange Rate: Analysis Using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

“…Hence, the amount of money supply relatively influences the Rupiah exchange rate. A currency will decrease in its value if the money supply is issued more (Hazizah et al, 2017).…”

“…The currency difference is a macroeconomic indicator. Therefore, it is necessary to have the same currency unit so that the currencies of both countries can convert into another currency by using a measurement unit called the exchange rate (Hazizah, Viphindrartin, & Zainuri, 2017). Then, a developing country like Indonesia with an open economy allows its citizens to have full access to the world economy.…”