Pandemic, Climate Mitigation, and Reshoring: Impacts of a Changing Global Economy on Trade, Incomes, and Poverty

Abstract

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

The War in Ukraine, Food Security and the Role for Europe

“…While not explicitly disaggregated in our analysis, agricultural importers in Sub‐Saharan Africa, such as Cameroon, Uganda, Yemen, Senegal, Niger and Tanzania, are the most vulnerable under the ongoing crises. These countries substantially rely on grain imports from the Black Sea region (Chepeliev et al ., 2022b) and they are also ranked among the bottom 25 least food‐secure countries in the world according to the Global Food Security Index 2022 developed by The Economist .…”

Global-to-local-to-global interactions and climate change

“…Analysis of climate change impacts should also go beyond sector by sector and instead account for different sectors simultaneously to properly account for the observed linkages and feedbacks in the Earth's systems (Frieler et al 2017). A recent study by Chepeliev et al (2022a) implements such cascading impacts while looking at the local consequences of U.S. climate mitigation policies and their feedbacks onto the world market (Box 2).…”

“…AgMIP's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison has conducted a series of protocol-based multi-model simulations to provide a solid grounding for application within global integrated assessment modeling. These include benchmarking the performance of models against Box 2: Multi-scale analysis of U.S. climate policy A study by Chepeliev et al (2022a) looks into local consequences of U.S. climate mitigation policies and their feedbacks onto the world market. To capture the GLG interactions and identify solutions, the authors link four existing models: the integrated assessment ENVISAGE model, the agro-ecosystem model Agro-IBIS, the water balance model WBM and the partial equilibrium SIMPLE-G model.…”

De la deslocalización a la relocalización: ¿Qué nos espera?

“…En este sentido, además de las empresas, los propios gobiernos de los países occidentales están promoviendo acciones para reducir esta dependencia e impulsar el regreso de la producción a los países de origen, todo ello enmarcado además en un entorno de necesidad de relanzar todas las economías tras la recesión provocada por la Covid-19. También hay quien opina que la relocalización de las cadenas de suministro como posible solución para combatir la actual incertidumbre está destinada al fracaso, aumentaría los costos para las empresas y los consumidores y apenas protegería a los países de las conmociones externas, haciéndolos más, no menos, vulnerables frente a eventuales disrupciones del entorno (Chepeliev et al, 2022).…”