Oxford Review of Economic Policy volume 27, issue 4, P536-562 2011 DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grr025 View full text
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J. Frankel

Abstract: Abstract The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased in booms, and (iii) to be even more biased at the 3-year horizon than at shorter horizons. This over-optimism in official forecasts can help explain excessive budget deficits, especially the failure to run surpluses during periods of high output: if a boom is forecasted to last ind…

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